Each day, various polls are taken to predict voters’ decisions and attitudes related to the 2008 presidential election. While national polls take the overall pulse of the race, it is the state polls, particularly in key battleground states, that voters, politicians, and the media watch closely to gauge the state of the race. Realclearpolitics is a great place to get update-to-date polls from various sources.
The electoral map, as presently constituted according to the polls, can be retrieved from: RCP Electoral Map.
For this post, you will need to view the map and its various components to formulate your own judgments about your own expected outcomes for the election. You will see clearly how the red states align with McCain, the blue states align with Obama, and the grey states are considered toss-ups. RCP merges polling data from various sources, and it makes changes to the map every day. To navigate the map, move your icon to states picquing your interest; a small box will open up where you can change the alignment according to who you think will win the election in that state. The most recent polls from each state are also accessible from this box.
Discussion Questions:
1. After sorting through all of the information on the map and applying what you know about the states and current conditions in the presidential race, go through the process of calculating your own outcomes to the presidential race. This means changing the toss-up states to a projected winner and possibly changing states that are leaning or solidly in favor of one candidate (there is valuable historical and current information on this site to inform your opinion). Predict the outcome in your comment.
2A – If you believe the race is close: what 2 or 3 states are going to be decisive and closest? Why?
2B – If you believe the race is not close: what happens on election night that turns the tide strongly in one direction?
3. When people look at the electoral map on November 5 (the day after), what is going to be most surprising to pundits?
Feel free to refer to articles/sources you read through RCP or other media sites. Less than one month away!
The last day to register in NJ is October 14.
As has been endlessly beaten into everyone’s head, this race is about old versus new; change versus reform. We have different demographics of voters in our country, from veterans and the elderly to the youth, women, the working class, Latin, “minority” and foreign-born Americans, the wealthy, business owners and entrepreneurs.
With all of these demographics in the United States, you would think that the spread of the vote, as is usually the case, would create a pretty tight race between Obama and McCain, however that isn’t the case this election.
The east/west coast liberal youth vote is safe with Obama, and I think nearly every kid in New Jersey could safely agree with that statement. This sets into stone the Northeast.
I think Obama will receive Ohio, and I say this not only from the polls which tend to lean towards Obama almost every time, but also due to how strongly he battled for Ohio during the primary and all of the public appeal he’s created since then during his campaign rallies in the state.
The elderly tend to vote in tune with conservative ideals, along with war veterans as they most associate national defense with the republicans. This would make you think Florida would be a McCain-leaner but from the number of polls that constantly church out Obama as the leader in public opinion, it’s hard to decide what to think. It’s rightly named a tossup but from what I can infer, and from talks with my own grandparents, I believe they are fed up with the current administration and therefore the republicans in general.
Between CNN and RealClear, I can see that Obama has a safe lead over McCain which makes me predict that this race won’t be close. I would be VERY surprised if Obama doesn’t win by a decent margin.
I think what we are seeing again is this constantly discussed idea of drastic ALTERING of the current route of the government (I’m trying to stray from the word “change”). This economic crisis is helping Obama in a multitude of ways. I think the republicans are associated with the economy’s harsh condition and the people hope the democrats can clean up the mess.
Of course this is the problem with a two party system; we have constant conflicts that divide the nation and a thriving world of finger pointing. When one house fails people expect the other house to do the clean up. This is why I believe that the race won’t be close but McCain won’t be left in the dust.
As to what the pundits will be surprised over the most: I think it depends on what you hear and from where. If you’re watching FOX I can bet you’ll hear talk of surprise over Obama [possibly] gaining Florida or West Virginia. You’ll hear more talk of all that “voter fraud” that seems to be running rampant (to FOX News, that is) as well and will see every movement from McCain until he finally disappears on the wrong side of the presidential winning line.
Otherwise I feel comfortable saying that most of the (yes, liberal) media sees an Obama presidency in our future. I get this not only from the links provided in the blog but also from the non-partisan poll companies who constantly come up with an Obama lead.
But don’t get me wrong, there’s still plenty of time for something to change and for more uprooting of the candidates’ pasts. I think we can expect to hear more of Obama and Ayers, even though i think this has been largely ignored by both the public and media.
I also think that the actions by the republicans in general have turned off many people to McCain. We STILL see “Obama Bin Laden” posters now and then, in fact there was one at a rally at Washington University on CNN not too long ago. All of the “Obama is a Muslim terrorist” nonsense gets pointed towards the republicans and John McCain himself has been dirtying up his campaign, to which I think he’s losing the undecideds’ votes.
Anyways, there’s still more to wait for, more to see. As we’ve discussed before, Obama has been given a HUGE break by the media. We can even see this on non-media based programs, as such on Comedy Central. The Daily Show With Jon Stewart claims that they are unbiased, but many people tend to think all of the McCain-bashing that goes on on the show contradicts that claim.
I would not label myself a Democrat or Republican, however Obama is becoming more of a reality to me. I try not to focus on partisan lines because if you do such a thing you’re limiting yourself on so many levels (of course it can be argued that we are a two party nation and not choosing a side is like sitting on the sidelines). Look at the candidate and not the partisan colors that tend to flash in peoples’ minds.
If the election were right now Obama would be our new president. The only way for Senator McCain to win the election would for him to take the rest of the undecided states and also some of the leaning democratic states. This map tells us that as of right now McCain is down over 119 votes. He needs to change something about his campaign focus in order to win the election.
This race is so far out of the water for McCain right now that the only way for him to win this race on election night would be for him to take all of the undecided states and some of the leaning democratic states, or for Senator Obama to either take himself out of the race or for him to pass away. These are the only options for Senator McCain to come out with the election at this point. There is still a lot of time before November 4 for that map to change, maybe even in a drastic way towards benefiting McCain.
The day after the election I think what would be most surprising would be that Senator Obama took all the Democratic States from the two previous elections and he also took some of the major Republican states that voted for president Bush in both previous elections. Also that Obama not only took the big electoral states but he pretty much took all of them. There are only 14 states in McCain’s favor right now. It would be surprising to see how much of a landslide Senator Obama takes the vote by.
I agree with the two previous posts. If the election were this Tuesday, Senator Obama would clearly become our President. He pretty much has won the Northeast and most of the West Coast. While just looking at the map, you are overwhelmed by the amount of red, in reality those states don’t carry a lot of the electorate votes. Senator McCain should be able to win Florida due to the amount of retired people that live there. He will have to earn it though, as the poll says that it is leaning towards Obama. The map clearly reflects the disapproval for the current Republican Administration as states such as Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina have voted Republican the past two years and now favor the Democratic canidate. This can also be seen with the projections if this very same election was occurring in either 2004 or 2000. McCain/Palin would be heavy favorites. Ohio is an interesting state since the polls tend to favor him, but have voted for Bush the past two elections.
Senator McCain really needs to drastically change his approach if he wants to win the election. He needs to stop trying to attack Obama and focus on promoting himself and Sarah Palin. Right now, this is Obama’s election to lose.
I agree with the previos posts made. If the election were to be this week Senator Obama would clearly win, but with there still being time for McCain to appeal to the swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Nevada and North Carolina. Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina will be the most important states to look at before and after the election to see which way they sway. These three states are key because of the amount of electoral votes they get. As in the 2004 election Florida will be a key state to win because of the amount of electoral votes, now that it is leaning to the Democratic side McCain really needs to step up his approach and try and win these voters. Even if Obama wins half the electoral votes that are still in toss up he has a clear win. If McCain receives all of the toss up votes that still only puts him at 243 votes which is not enough to win. As of now Obama needs to solidify his 66 leaning votes and McCain needs to focus on trying to win over tehh people of Ohio, Florida and North CArolina
It is pretty clear that Obama has the clear advantage in this presidential race. This could be attributed to people’s general disapproval of Bush, but it also appears that people are just looking for new leadership after these past eight years. Two states, Ohio and Florida, which were won by the Republicans in the last two elections now appear to favor Obama and the Democrats. Being over 100 votes down from Obama, it is essential for McCain to find a way to connect with these states and try to bring them back over to the Republican side.
The middle block of the United States, as well as some of the South, is predominantly Republican but that could change in the upcoming month. The continued efforts of Obama to promote the idea of change and the disastrous events that have occurred recently under Republican leadership all contribute to Obama’s camp. However, many of the social conservatives of the South might not be willing to compromise those beliefs under Democratic leadership. If anything, the biggest surprise on November 5th will be the random southern states which Obama wins and McCain loses.
Hello president obama…if you look at the maps its easy it see how favored obama is throughout the blue states and even some that are usually republican are now favoring the democrats. We’ve still got a little under a month to change the way the map looks but as of now it seems that Obama will be winning by almost a landslide. McCain definitely needs to change something about the way he is approaching certain states because he really needs to garner more public support in order to come back and win this election. He needs almost 120 more votes in order to win. However, there is plenty of time and it would be foolish for Obama to get ahead of himself and consider himself the winner, even though it seems quite obvious right now from the maps that he has the clear advantage.
Considering that the states that are leaning to one candidate stay to that candidate, and having some of the states lean towards McCain and the other towards Obama (based on location influence the country), the electoral vote shows Obama winning 294 to 244.
If the race is to be close the two states that should decide the next President of The United States would be Ohio and Florida. I believe that these two states would be the deciding states because they both are worth a good amount of points. Ohio being worth 20 votes and Florida being worth 27 votes.
If the race were to be close however, I feel that the issue that would have made the tide turn would have been the issue of McCains negative campaigning against Barack Obama.
If Obama were to win in the fashion that my map appears, it would look really weird from a viewers point simply because there are so many more red states compared to Obama’s blue states. Most of the middle of the country would be red while only the edges and a little bit of the country would be blue. With this Obama would be the winner.
I’ve heard from several sources and people that the young voters of the country tend to “not care” about issues really and focus more on societal qualms rather than anything else in choosing a candidate. That’s why, as many claim, Obama is winning over so much of the youth vote, as his status as a minority (technically speaking) and views on change turns on those ideological queues in their (well, our) minds. Being of the “youth” of American I tend to find this a rash generalization that is somewhat frustrating. I’ve heard from radical conservative pundits and people such as Bill OReilly who tend to refer to younger voters as uninformed pot-smoking skaters that say “dude” and who can’t tie their own shoelaces or count from one to fifteen. Modern day hippies, in a sense, who only vote in terms of ideology and not of hard-pressed issues and of the reality of situations. To say that I wasn’t at all swayed by Obama’s minority status would be a lie. I have to admit that it HAS helped bolster his image as a true agent of change, in my mind, although I realize that I shouldn’t make such judgments. The truth of the matter is that I fully realize the two differences in the candidates and I don’t spend my time dwelling on ideological standpoints of mine, even though I’m sure they drastically affect my opinions in ways I don’t even realize. I think a lot of young voters feel this way too. I think the young people of America, including plenty of us high school students (even though I can’t vote yet) get sort of frustrated at this generalization that is all over the media and the country. I feel as if certain demographics of the country don’t take us seriously in our opinions because we may not be, in their view, “sound of mind” or “intellectually competent” as of yet. Even political analysts seem to speak about the youth as if we were being observed in a zoo exhibit. The youth of America are going to be one of the most, if not THE most, critical deciding factors in this election and I think Obama got a huge head start in gaining support from this demographic of the country. I realize there is another facet of the youth vote that lies within the southern states and hardcore conservative regions of the country, but we don’t hear enough from them, in my opinion. Getting to hear what that group of young voters’ opinions were would help me get a better idea of how the overall feeling of the two candidates are in the eyes of the future adults of the Unites States. And speaking in more general terms, Obama has a lead over McCain in the average percentage of polls in many of the so labeled tossup states. This includes Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Nevada. Once again, while of course the polls can be off and the opinions of undecideds can change over the next three weeks, the overall impression of the country is showing an Obama presidency looming in the future.
As of right now Obama is winning this election by a nice margin. As long as he keeps campaigning the way he is, he looks to be the next President of our country. Obama seems to control the outermost states of our country, while McCain holds strong with the middle states. I feel that all leaning states will stay with that candidate, and the toss-ups are a very big question. If the map stays the way it is Obama will be the next President even if McCain wins every single toss-up
If the election does become close, the two states that will choose the next President I feel are Ohio and Florida, once again. They have the most votes, and will be crucial to the candidates if the election becomes close. Even if those two states can’t decide the next President, then North Carolina will have to become an important factor for both parties.
I think that many people will be surprised by the spread of votes for Obama compared to McCain who holds the middle of our country very strongly. McCain I fell will win those toss ups and Obama will win Florida and Ohio. This is what I feel will be the outcome of this election.
The electoral map shows that if the election were to be based off what is is today Obama would become the next president of the United States. Although the map does show Obama to be in the lead, it is not over till its over.
Things may change over the next month and the two states that will decide the election if it does become closer are Ohio and Flordia. These states have always been very large swing states. The only difference now is that those states may go democratic.
I think that Obama is going to be the next president but one that would surprise people would be if he won southern toss up states like North Carolina or Florida.
I am guessing that Obama is going to win the presidential election. Even if McCain were to win all of the toss up states, as long as the states that are currently leaning toward Obama vote Obama, then Obama would win the presidential election. The only time in history where a candidate overcame such a strong lead, was the 1980 election in which Reagan overtook an 8 percentage point lead from Carter and that was when Carter was representing the party in the White House during bad times.
That being said, I think that there are some things that the polls don’t take into account that could affect the election. I’ve read about the Bradley effect, in which white voters lie and say they will vote for a black candidate when asked in the polls but when they get in the voting booth they actually vote for the white candidate. However, I’m hoping that this will be offset by a large youth voter turnout. Just from what I’ve seen, it seems that young voters are much more interested in the election this year. The polls aren’t taking this into account either, but it will hopefully affect the election greatly.
Based on just notions of what is going to happen, I made my electoral map. The results were surprising. Without looking at the electoral votes, (and not designating states as leaning or toss up,) it wound up being a tie in the Electoral College. Here’s how I got the results: the 2000 election results, except Obama would get Colorado. So that means McCain gets Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. That may seem like wishful thinking; however I’m not so sure. Why? The Obama effect.
The Obama effect (more commonly called the Bradley effect) is where in pre election polls, a black candidate always seems to be winning over the white candidate, but then the results are always a surprise because they didn’t win by the large margins predicted, or even lost. This is not racism. Its people polling that they favor the black candidate because they are afraid of being accused of racism. This is the price we pay for living in today’s politically correct world: deceiving leads and surprising losses for black candidates.
As I have indicated, I feel it will be a close race, assuming the current political atmosphere exists three weeks from now. The important states will be Ohio and Florida just as in the past two elections; however it comes down to smaller states. I have a weird feeling that New Hampshire will be much closer than the 10% predicted lead for Obama, because McCain has historically been popular there. Bush won it in 2000; why is it silly to think McCain couldn’t win there now, when he beat Bush in the 2000 primary? As for Colorado, I think it will still be Obama’s on election night, because I view it as a hotbed of liberalism in the Midwest. Obama has a 4% lead, which could easily evaporate if I prove correct about the Obama effect, but yet I hold out hope for Colorado. After all, the convention was there.
The pundits are all biased, so half of them are going to be surprised when their candidate loses. As for being surprised about individual states… New Hampshire and Colorado!!!
I think Obama will be the next president of the United States. It already seems clear on the electoral map that he has all the electoral votes he needs. If Obama got all his solid votes and his leaning votes, he would still beat McCain if McCain got all his solid votes, leaning votes, AND the toss up votes. If McCain wants he win, he definitely needs to step us his game. The only way McCain could possibly take the next presidency would be for him to take all the toss up and his leaning votes, but also some of Obama’s leaning votes. I just do not think that will happen though. Obama has shown he knows what he’s doing and that it is time for “change” and that he will be the 44th president of the United States of America.
Ohio and Florida will definitely be the states to watch. They are both toss up and have a large amount of electoral votes. When you look at the electoral map you do see a lot of red, but that red doesn’t really matter because it doesn’t count for as many electoral votes as a lot of the blue states do. It comes down to those two states which I think Obama will take.
Although realclear has Obama winning in a land slide, I don’t think its going to be that large of a margian, only because I can’t imagine that after to very close elections the American people suddenly changed their mind drastically. However, I do think that Obama will win the election, by a decent margain, 20-35 electoral votes. Don’t be surprised if Obama wins North Carolina and/or Virginia, but doesn’t take either Ohio and/or Florida. I think what we’ve seen over the past few weeks is taht Obama is connecting with the people about the economy and its troubles. People have began to connect McCain to the past eight years and its not working. Obama has shown clear leadership during this unsteady period, while McCain shifts back and forth.
Based on the “toss up” states’ poll averages, it seems that all of them give Obama a lead, with the exception of Indiana. In most cases, it seems that Obama has gained this lead in the last few weeks. I predict the majority of these states will go to Obama, but some, like Ohio, are still very close. However, in Ohio, only one recent poll gave McCain a lead.
With an average lead of 4.2 points in national polls, Obama has a clear lead, but I think the election will still be close. I think Ohio and North Carolina will probably be decisive, as they are currently the “toss-up” states with the highest number of electoral votes. States like Michigan and Virginia, which have been considered “battleground” states, will be decisive as well, but, at this point, it seems that Obama has a pretty clear lead in both these states. Ohio will probably be very close, as it is such an important state and is only giving Obama a +2.2 lead currently. North Carolina appears to also be a close race, with a +1 lead for Obama.
I think something that might be surprising to pundits is Obama winning Florida. It is currently on the electoral map as “leaning” toward Obama, with a 5 point lead for the Democrat. What is interesting is that, looking at Florida’s graph, this lead was acquired very recently and quickly. This is surprising because, in all the elections since 1968, with the exception of two, Florida has been a red state. Because it has so many electoral votes, its leaning toward Obama could have a significant effect on that state’s categorization as “red” or “blue” in future elections.
I think if the election were to be held today that Obama would win. He is clearly dominating in electoral votes and it seems that the majority of the toss up states are leaning towards him. On the map it may seem that the amount of states each candidate has is equal but the electoral votes in the states that McCain won are significantly less. The economy is in a crisis and I think thats why the toss up states are going to go towards Obama because he is generally in favor of lowering taxes. Also, historically when the people are discontent with the current leading party, in this case George Bush, the people tend to vote the other way in the election and thus that is another reason why I believe Obama will be elected. In the polls on RealClearPolitics it is showing that Obama is ahead significantly. It does not help the McCain Campagin with the recent revelation that Sarah Palin abused her power int he “troopergate” scandal. I think Ohio and Florida are going to be important swing states. No candidate has won the election without winning Ohio in recent elections and thus it is important that McCain win that state if he even thinks he will have a change. Also, Flordia was a hot state in the Gore-Bush election and it has a lot of electoral votes. A lot of retired people live there that tend to be more conservative. What could happen on the night of the campaign that influences the election is if people who said they would vote for Obama don’t because of his race. I think it would be a surprise if Flordia actually went for Obama because they traditionally vote conservatively like they did for Bush.
I think it is still too early to bet my life on Obama winning the election. There are other factors that cannot be recognized at this point. The ‘Bradley effect’ cannot be forgotten as he was ahead in polls in Califonia (in fact by a wide margin) however on election day, he lost governorship. In that case it appeared that race was the only factor, however I think the public cannot proclaim Obama the winner just yet. McCain still has time to turn over some voters, but the trend of him giving up on states that used to be toss-ups, are significant. RealClearPolitics shows Obama’s vast lead 313-158, including leaning states. Florida appears to be in the hands of Obama, but the 2000 election demonstrated the majority in the hands of conservatives. If the ultimate toss-up states (Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina) vote for McCain, Obama still has the majority. McCain needs to take advantage of the states leaning towards Obama while Obama focuses on the tossup states to solidfy his lead.
In my outcome, Obama wins the election, based on the voting history of the state, who won the primary, and what I think people are voting on in that state. I think that the two states that are going to be swing states are Ohio and Indiana based on their track record this far. When pundits look at the map on November 5th, I think they are going to be expecting more states to vote for McCain when right now, they are in favor of McCain.
In my opinion it seems that Obama is going to win the election. Two key swing states Ohio and Florida are more leaning torts Obama. We already know big electoral states like California and New York are going to vote for Obama or democrat and Texas and most of the Midwest is going to vote McCain. The election is going to come down to Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina with all three states favoring Obama. If Florida and Ohio end up going to McCain I think that McCain will win the election but that would be the surprise.
Right now, I’m thinking Obama’s momentum is going to be unstoppable until election day. Over the past two weeks, he has picked up too many supporters to lose sight of the win now.
I think this momentum will also allow him to pick up many of the newly registered voters and possibly turn some red states blue. Many of the pundents are saying that Obama may now be able to take Virginia because most new voters seem to be registering as democrats. I would not be surprised if this same trend continued in other states as well.
I think McCain will be able to clench Ohio and Missouri and possibly some of the smaller states but Obama will take Florida and North Carolina to seal his win. I think that Obama’s plan for the economy is what is going to help him gain voters in Florida.
I don’t think this is going to be a race decided on election night. I think Obama will have the clear lead going into Nov. 4 and he will be able to hold it. However, I do think it will be closer than the pundents feel because in the initial polls many people will say they’re voting for Obama because they won’t want to feel racist, but when they get to the polls they’ll change their mind. That being said, I don’t think it will be enough of a change to allow McCain to win.
I think that on November 5, the pundents will be most surprised by the change in the electoral map from 2004 to 2008. Many of the states that Bush won I feel will now go towards Obama.
Who knows… no matter how much math and how many ways you split it there’s no way to know until November 4 and I guess we’ll find out then!
I agree with the past post in that as of right now Obama seems to be the clear winner because he has all the statistics to prove it. He has had the right strategies towards campaigning and motivating the pubic. However, I feel these maps and statistics are not as accurate as we want them to be. Last year I took AP Statistics, we learned about the political maps and other percentages like these may show a winner, but in fact have an error of distribution, which can lead the public in one belief, while the other candidate actually has the status and votes to win. This is not the only reason why I do not trust the map, I feel that many people are saying that they are going to vote for Obama, but once they are alone in the voting booth they will switch their vote.
I think it will come down to the voters in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. All three of these have a good amount of electoral votes and are toss up states as of right now. Since they are located in the middle of the country or the southern part of the country they are unpredictable as of right now. Therefore, we will have to wait for the outcome. I also agree with past post that point out how although there are a lot of red states, they do not count as must as the ones which are blue. Lastly, I must agree with past posts that believe Obama will be the next president of the United States.
Despite what many people have been saying, I do not believe this election is in anyway won yet. It it still too early to tell who will be the next President of the United States. Obama does have the lead as of right now, but I do not think it is impossible for McCain to catch him. That said, it will be in no way easy for McCain to win. To start, McCain will definitely need to win Ohio and Florida, which is not an impossible task. Both states have voted Republican is the past two elections, and will probably stay Republican, especially Florida because of the connection with the Bushes.
In addition, McCain will most likely have to win Virginia. This will be much much harder, but could possibly be done through a lot of devotion and perseverance. Also, it would not be impossible for him to win North Carolina either.
In order for this to happen, it is imperative that a few things happen. First, Obama has to mess up somewhere. He either has to be factually accused of something or say something terribly wrong himself. Also, I do believe that it is necessary that the economy starts to stabilize. The American people associate the recession with the Republican party, which could sway some people to vote Democratic. But again, this election is in no way decided already. However, the election will not be won on election day. I believe we will be able to better predict who will win once election day gets closer. If I had to pick a winner right now, I would have to say Obama.
I agree with alg6191 that despite all of the media reports of the large margin that Obama currently leads in, this election is far from over. I do think that McCain will definitely win Florida because of their history with the bushes, and also the dominance of elderly people living there are not thirlled about drastic change. I think Ohio and North Carolina are still very much up in the air. There are many small businesses in North Carolina, and after watching different news reports, most small companies have said that they are in favor of Obama. However Ohio is going to be the big deciding factor. As for the reports I did see, they were only some businesses and is not an absolute fact. Many say the race is decided, but what people say they will vote and what people actually vote when the curtain is closed and its just them and the ballot is a whole other story.
I think pundits would be most surprised by these states going Republican on November 5: New Mexico and Indiana. New Mexico would be a shocker because right now it is leaning towards Obama and Governor Bill Richardson ran in the Democratic Primaries alongside Obama and Clinton. Indiana is simply geographically close to Illinois, so you’d think Obama’s message would rub off on the adjacent state.
Surprising Democratic states would include Georgia and Florida. Traditionally Georgia has been a pretty staunch Republican state, but the map says there some doubt. And Florida would be an odd win for the Democrats because neither candidate seems to resonate loud enough with the voters there, so they may just pick the more experienced candidate.
I would put money on Obama right now, but with 18 days left, this is prime time to unleash wave after wave of scandal stories for both sides. The map is fickle.
IN will go McCain because wavered but now solidly McCain and always went conservative in the past four elections. OH and FL could still go either way because while in the past two elections they’ve gone conservative, they went liberal three elections ago and are leaning liberal ever so slightly now after switching back and forth a lot, so it’s anyone’s game. I believe that NC will swing back conservative because, not only have they been conservative in the last three elections, but McCain and Obama keep switching positions and Obama is barely winning now… that leads me to believe McCain will ultimately win out. In the end, I believe Obama will definitly win. The majority of the states are already dominantly in his favor, and even if every single state that is currently unsure votes for McCain, Obama will still win. I don’t believe the race to be close, I think Obama will win overwhelmingly. While America is inherently racist, especially historically in the south, I don’t believe that will have a considerable effect on the election because even if people change their vote once they’re in the booth, the majority will not.
Although Obama has a clear lead in the election right now, there are still about 3 weeks left until election night and a lot can be said and done in those three weeks that could alter the outcome of this election. However, most toss up states seem to be leaning towards Obama, even Florida which has voted republican in 2000 and 2004. Winning FL would be a huge victory for Obama and would definitely speak volumes on election night. According to an article in the Daily News, Obama is leading in 9 out of 12 toss up states; even though the margins are close, many toss ups have become solidly pro-Obama. For example in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two huge wins for Obama and places where McCain essentially gave up trying. Indeed, Obama has an obvious edge on McCain and the chances of him winning on November 4th are high. While some pundits say that Obama still has to clear up his plan regarding economics in order to win, I disagree. I think it’ll take a lot more than a little ambiguity in a certain area for Obama to fall behind McCain.
I think that Obama will win with a decent gap between him and Mccain. Obama is currently ahead in the polls with a significant lead and I don’t foresee much of that lead diminishing in the coming weeks. If anything his lead may increase as battleground states become more partisan.
I think that pundits are going to be most surprised on November 5 when they see that Florida that voted for Obama after voting republican in the past two elections.
In Real Clear Politics the odds clearly favor obama, with and without the leaning states. But unlike previous posts, I think it is important to remember that the race is not over. I would love to sit here and say that Obama is definately going to win, but I think it would be unwise to do so. Half a month is a long time and a lot can happen from now until election day. I think people also must consider that the polls only reflect a margin of people and are subject to change based on who is being polled….there are certainly enough “toss up” states to swing the election either way.
Another thing to consider is the amount of people who say they will vote for Obama but when it comes down the election day and the curtain closes they will not because of his race. While I do not particualarly believe that this will have an overwhelming effect on the election I do think that factors such as above states are a testament to the over all acurateness of the polls.
The states the electiona is really going to come down to are Pennsylvania and Florida. Often in the spot light these swing states have plently of electoral votes and are known for there ability to hold a close race…. I think it will be same for this election.
On November 5th I think pundits will be surprised at how much closer the race was, considering how high Obama was in the polls up until the day before…. Ultimately I do think he will win though, even if its not as by as much as expected.
I think that if the polls are correct, Obama is pretty much the clear cut winner. Nine states that had a majority for Bush in the last election are now leaning towards Obama. And only one of those states (Iowa) was for Gore in 2000. I think that this is very promising for Obama. Also considering the fact that Florida and Ohio seem to be both leaning towards Obama (although it’s not entirely clear-cut at this point), I think that Obama has a good shot at winning this thing. However, that’s not to say that things won’t change, and they can. But I think that this shows that many people are fed up with the Republicans and want to see some changes. But nothing’s certain til November 4.
I think that this election is not going to be as clear cut as the electoral map makes it seem. The map makes it appear that Obama is likely to win, however, this is not necessarily the case. I do not think that these polls can really predict the outcome of the election. Although there are some states that will definitely go to Obama and some states that will definitely go to McCain, it all comes down to election day. Believe it or not, a lot can happen between now and the election that may sway people and states to go the opposite way as predicted in the polls. I think it is also hard to predict the election because people may say that they are an Obama or McCain supporter, however, it all comes down to the choice that is made when they are alone on election day and their vote is anonymous. I think it is interesting to note what “crystalline3rain” said and the website showed that nine states that had a majority for Bush in the last election are now leaning towards Obama. This brings up an interesting point that some people are voting for Obama because they associate McCain with Bush and they do not like the way that Bush has run our country in the last 8 years. This, in a way, gives Obama a handicap by offering America a change.
As of today it’s pretty obvious that Obama has a big lead. The map shows how Obama’s solid states are all the North Eastern states and the west coast. Obama has many big states like California. This race might be closer then they are predicting. Ohio and Florida are either going to be big upsets for McCain, or they will secure victory for Obama. Only time can tell. This map is surprising to me. Ohio, who is more conservative is now undecided. I agree with crystalline3rain, in that the Republicans have lost many state’s votes since the 2004 elections and it’s because the people want change.
Based on this poll map, it seems obvious that Obama holds the upper hand. He has 249 solid states as opposed to McCain’s 140. He also has more leaning states with 37 as opposed to McCain’s 15. And, even if 2/3 of the electorals from the toss up states go to McCain, he still falls short of Obama’s predicted 286 with 220. The east coast and west coast states have more electorals than many of the midwest and southern states.
If the race is close, Ohio and Florida could change the outcome because both have a good amount of electoral votes. With Ohio worth 20 and worth Florida 27 votes, they could easily help give the upper hand to either candidate.
Though there COULD be some things that occur between now and the election, many people I have been speaking to for months still have the same opinions, even people who used to vote strictly to their party. Even my grandmother and most of my family who are republicans and have held public offices, such as governer, have decided to lean more towards Obama from the beginning of the campaign. I really don’t think people are as easily swayed as some people think. However, one thing that could change people’s opinions before election day COULD possibly be the vice presidential nominees and their debate, as well as the final presidential debates. The issue of negative campaigning and the other “scandals” such as Obama’s affiliation with terrorists and Palin’s abusing her power as governer could also sway opinions.
It would be very surprising if Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina ended up voting for Obama, because they did not last election based on the 2004 electoral map, and because Virginia and North Carolina are southern states that usually tend to believe in and vote for Republican values.
If the election were to happen today or tomorrow then Obama would clearly win and become the next president. He currently holds 249 electoral votes to McCain’s 140. However, there is always the issue of race that even though people are pro-obama now they may not produce on election day. Between CNN and RealClear, it is obvious that Obama has a lead over McCain.
The economic crisis also seems to be helping Obama because it is very closely linked with the Bush administration and has made many Republicans become fed up with their own party.
However, nothing is certain until Nov. 4th.
2b.) Although it might appear that Obama has a solid lead in the polls, I don’t think McCain can be counted out. With more than two weeks left until the election, there is still enough time to swing the outcome of the election. The financial crisis, for instance, resulted in a denouncing of John McCain’s economic policy and an extreme shift in the polls towards Obama. If, god forbid, there was a foreign attack on US soil or some other national security threat, the american people would be fearful of our security and probably gravitate towards McCains more aggressive foreign policy strategie. A tragety such as this would probably yeild a dramatic shift in support for McCain. I do not think that “scandals” such as Obama’s affiliation with Bill Aires, or Sara Palin’s abuse of power as a governor will have any weight this far in the election. It would take a national tragety for voters to sway their opion on who would be better fit as president of the United States.
3.) I think the most surprising outcome we will see on election day will be in florida. With a huge senior citizen populations, Florida could possibly fall prey to the Bradley theory which, based of an LA election, states that some voters lie to pre-election pollsters about their intentions to vote for an African American candidate as to not appear racist. This would explain the current tight race in the state. However, since may senior citizens still hold onto their pre-civil rights movement views on race, I believe that Florida could potentially have a strong majority for McCain.
-Flash
Obama, at the moment, seems to have a clear lead over McCain in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and even contested states of both parties, such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina. If this continues to be the case, and the poles are not flawed, Obama will win the election.
If anything will be surprising, it will be the impact of the votes of the states of North Carolina and Virginia. The votes of these states could indicate the possibility of a new electoral map, and a newer coalition among liberals.
While RealClear shows Obama/Biden winning the election by a large margin, I do not think that this is a plausible prediction of the elections’ results. Social desirability bias is the tendency for respondents of a poll or other research to respond in a way that they believe others will favor. Race is unfortunately something that will factor largely into the presidential election; many people may say that they will vote for Obama because they don’t want to be viewed as racist. However, when they actually get into the voting booth, their instinctive morals will kick in and those who feel the least bit uncomfortable with an African American as president will not vote for him. Govluv91 mentioned the Bradley Effect, “in which white voters lie and say they will vote for a black candidate when asked in the polls but when they get in the voting booth they actually vote for the white candidate.” Likewise, people may say they are going to vote for McCain/Palin because they don’t want to be viewed as sexist; however, when they go to cast their vote, they won’t vote Republican because they won’t want a female in office.
This bias may end up being factored out since each party will suffer from it: Obama’s race and Palin’s gender. That is when other, more important things come into play. The country is currently in an economic recession, and I’m sure there are many Americans who do not want their taxes to be raised under Obama’s tax plan. Even though he stands by his plan, McCain constantly emphasizes the fact that Obama will raise taxes. That thought sticks out in peoples’ minds, and may cause them to vote McCain. Personally, I hope that when Americans go to vote on November 4th, they remember how the majority of the country is so ready for not only a new president, but a new type of president—meaning not another “Bush” for the next eight years. I hope that those who are wary of Obama’s tax plan will trust that it will work; after all, he stands strongly by it in the face of criticism and a failing market. I do not believe there will be much change with McCain. The country seems to be craving change, and the solution to that is Obama.
My prediction is McCain-285, Obama 263. The states that are going to be decisive states are Virginia, Florida, and Colorado. The reason for this is because these states are not only undecided they also have a high Electoral College numbers. The states have also voted towards the republican way, even though Virginia is not so focused on Obama for the time being. The reason that I also believe that Obama will not is because of the state’s history. Virginia has not really been the fulcrum for change, they were the first state to secede from the Union and they were not to fond of the civil rights movement. I’m not trying to sound racist but it is highly unlikely that a state that usually votes Republican won’t vote that way. Florida is another key state, that has a lot of history of controversy, from the prisoner votes to the re-count. This state I believe will go to Mr. McCain because of the population. The state has a high elderly population and I believe this will come in handy. These old people will not want to get taxed and have other things done to their ways of life that will change it. This is a state that Republicans have a strong foot in also. Colorado will also change sides because they have voted republican in the past two elections. In this election they will probably vote the same way because they have similar issues and values that many of the mid west have and they will too. When Nov. 5 rolls around many people will be surprised with the election outcome. It will be like Ronald Reagan’s election all over again. The opponent was leading but the voters got smart and voted for the better and more qualified candidate.
I agree with the general consensus. I do believe Obama would win the election if the polls were open now. While it will be a close race, this election, like the last election for Congress, will favor the Democratic party. The states that will be on the edge will be, of course, Florida and Ohio, and possibly Nevada. These will be the states that define the election, because the other states have historically voted one way or the other. The only thing that could sway their votes from leaning more democratically, I think, would be if some large scandals were to come out in the next week. This election weighs heavily, and many people are crossing party lines to vote for who they believe to be the better candidate. This election is very important because it will decide the direction this country will go in for the next 4 years.
I think that it is safe to say that Obama will have a decisive victory in this election. Ever since the financial crisis hit the United States, McCain has been falling behind in the polls. Though our economic state has nothing to do with McCain, he is connected to the Republican Party, which has been inadvertently blamed by the American public for our financial problems. In light of this, Obama will most like seize the votes of the “toss up” states, such as Ohio and Florida, and will therefore clinch the election.
The bottom line is that people want change. Most have become fed up with the current administration and they do not want to see a repeat of the last eight years. although McCain has attempted to distance himself from the current administration, he is still followed by Bush’s shadow. Even avid Republicans have shifted over to Obama’s side. If McCain has any hope of winning this election, it lies in his own hands: he must fight. He of course cannot come across as a hot-head, like he has in the past, but he must aggressively point Obama’s flawed plans for America. McCain must mention the problems with high taxes as well as Obama’s lack of experience. If he does not do this in a forceful manner, then his chances are doomed.
At this point in the race, Obama appears to have a lead over McCain; however, key swing states such as Ohio and Florida could lead to a win in either direction. Regarding Florida, a win in this state could easily change the outcome of the election. I predict that Florida will go to McCain, as the state has gone to a Republican in the past 6/7 elections. Also, because of the elder, more conservative populationm, there is a bias based on race. Obama could win with the support of the Hispanic population (the largest minority in the United States). McCain also has a hard-line stance on immigration and this may cause him to lose the state. Ohio is another key state that may very well lead a candidate to victory. Ohio, as shown in previous elections, could go either way, but currently, swing states are leaning towards Obama, which is the overall trend. McCain also lost support due to the economic crisis because he and the crisis are both linked to the Bush administration.
This race is fairly close and each candidate will need to win key swing states in order to win the election. Florida and Ohio will be decisive and closest. They are the swing states that have the most electoral votes. When people look at the electoral map on the day after the election, pundits will be surprised by the changes from the last presidential election in 2004. Some states that were once supportive of Bush may lean in the other direction. This is evident in his remarkably low approval rating. Also, the polls may prove to be wrong and swing states may be in favor of the unpredicted candidate. The 2008 presidential race has truly been interesting to watch and the outcome on November 4th could go either way.
All right this is what I think. I think that right now Obama is winning the polls. However, I think that what will really happen will be a little different than what the polls are showing. For example I think that many people right now say that they would have no problem voting for a black president, but when it matters, unfortunately I think that many people won’t vote for Obama because he is black. Furthermore, it is hard to predict whether or not a significant amount of young voters will come out to vote on Nov. 4 and finally if states will really vote for the person right now that they say they will vote for. I really don’t care about polls, I just think that they’re intersting but neither McCain nor Obama should lose sleep over it. The significance of the polls, if any should not have a huge impact on their campaigns, like for example McCain giving just because at least right now Obama is more popular. Anything can happen and you never know.
I was slightly (but pleasantly) surprised to see that Barack was so much further ahead than John in the polls. I know that it is important to not take this information as the whole truth, but it is surely indicative of where our country stands at least when it comes to mock election. It gives me more confidence in Obama to know that the majority of citizens stand behind him in his quest for the White House.
At least in theory, that is.
I’m worried about the Bradley effect occurring, because that would be the biggest disappointment EVER.
As mentioned in the Newsweek article, there are only two states (OK and TN) that show bigger margins for McCain, as opposed to the 21 states that gave Bush double-digit wins in 2004. Ohio, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia will most likely be the closest swing states. Florida: the overwhelming amount of elderly voters will probably vote conservative. The pundits are reporting more and more democrats registering in Virginia, according to another source. Hopefully this trend keeps up, and Obama will snatch up the remaining totterers in Virginia.
Obama will secure nearly every state on the east and west coast. Since he is so ahead in the polls, it is safe to assume that nearly every liberal state will vote for him. In terms of the midwest, I believe that Obama will secure Michigan, another huge state to give him a boost. At least McCain has those southern states!What is so surprising to pundits though is that usual Republican favoring Southern state Virginia has seen a boost of registered democrats, who may work in in favor of Obama.
The race is not close, it is looking pretty good for Obama. However, like the poster above said, the Bradley effect has been known to turn the tide of voters, so we must hope that our country really is ready for change.
I find it interesting that only a few weeks ago no one could even predict who would win the election but now most people think Obama will win handily. I believe that Obama would certainly win the election if it were held today. His lead is pretty significant, because even if McCain wins all of the toss up states he’ll still lose by 74 votes. The election, however, is not today and McCain can still certainly pull out an upset. McCain has recently guaranteed a win. Now, maybe McCain isn’t the best person to ask about his chance of winning the election but I’m sure that he wouldn’t GUARANTEE a win if he thought that he didn’t have a shot. McCain has gone from being down 13 points to 8 points in the past week.
On election night I think that people who are leaning Obama will switch their votes to McCain. I’m not saying this just because Obama is black (although that will certainly have an effect) but rather because of the state of the economy combined with the war in Iraq. In order to remedy the problems within our country, the next president needs to ensure that our ties with other nations remain strong. Obama has little experience with foreign affairs whereas McCain has a lot. McCain has experience in government and there’s little chance of him making any bad decisions while Obama is a quite frankly a huge risk because of his almost nonexistent political experience.
It’s true that many undecided voters are leaning Obama because of McCain’s recently negative campaign ads. People don’t seem to realize that McCain doesn’t have a choice. He is desperate because the media says he should be. Up to this point Obama has been given a break by the media. McCain’s been criticized for just about everything he’s done since he was given the Republican nomination while Obama has been able to run his campaign with little interference from the media.
McCain needs to focus on Florida, Ohio and Virginia because historically the Republican party has won those states. If he manages to take those states he’ll certainly have a chance. I also don’t think there’s any chance of Obama taking the Southern states and if McCain can take the previously mentioned states along with North Carolina he might not sound like such a fool for guaranteeing a win come election night.
Obama may seem to have a large lead in these polls, but you also need to take into consideration the fact of race. it is a factor no matter what is said, people will sway because of the race of the candidate no matter what. The bradley affect can come into play in this situation, although personally i hope that we can avoid a situation like that. But i do believe that the american people will not leave the election up to race, obama and mccain are both solid candidates for the presidency and no one can deny that fact.
I believe this race will be closer then some people may expect, factoring in the votes that go to mccain because of obamas race(not saying that this is good thing) you put obama with a smaller lead against mccain and as Alex1 stated there may be some last minute decisons against the different candidates that may chance the election.
On november fifth i do not know what that map will look like, we are living through one of the most momnumental elections in history, anything can happen. mccain may pull from behind and take the race, obama may continue to strech the lead. Both campains will be pulling out all the stops in this last week before the election, and these things could change everything.
I think that this will be a very exciting election. Personally, I think that the popular vote will be extrmely close, but that Obama will win the electoral vote by a very wide margin.
When I changed around the electoral map, I thought that a lot of the toss ups would go to McCain. I think McCain will get Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, and Georgia. But those states won’t be enough to bring him over the edge since Obama has such a huge lead. I do think that Obama will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, however I think that the popular votes in those states will be extremely close. In my final version of the map, Obama won 333 to 205.
After the current financial crisis, the media sway toward Obama, etc, I don’t think anyone will be surprised when he wins handily.
I think that this election will prove that the swing states can truly swing either way. I think since the swing states that were typical republican might not be swinging towards McCain for fear that he will not bring about change and be another Bush. I think that since McCain is associated with Bush he will probably lose some of the republican states and some of the typical republican swing states because he is associated with the problem in many people’s eyes.
I think that in order for McCain to win he would have to change in campaign but this will be hard considering that the media and the American public has been harsh on McCain while they have been lovable to Obama. I think that since McCain is down over 192 votes in order for him to win he would have to win the majority of the wing states and even take some of the leaning states; however, this will be really hard because with a primarily Democratic Congress, Americans see that we can have change come about with a Congress that is leaning toward a Democratic President that will hopefully get more change about and will bring better values and views in his decision making. Many people do not want another Bush and McCain seems to be compared to Bush making his likeability decrease.
I personally believe that Obama will win the election by a fairly strong margin. After playing with the map a little I found that it would be extremely difficult for McCain to win even if he got Florida. I think that a lot of traditionally red states like Virginia will turn blue. I think there is a strong chance that Virginia in particular will turn blue because in recent elections they have voted for a Democratic governor.
With the electoral college map I made I gave McCain, Arizona(his home state), Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Florida, and Georgia. Even with these additions he was still behind. I think Indiana, and North Carolina will go to Obama.. I believe the biggest “toss up state” is Ohio. Bush won the last two elections there by very narrow margins. Ohio’s political landscape is so varied because it has many metropolitan areas such as Cleveland(which elected the very liberal Congressman Dennis Kucinich) and Columbus yet many religious rural areas.
I think that what people will be most shocked about on November 5 will be by how large of a margin Obama wins by. The last two elections have been super close and I think the American people aren’t used to landslide election.
In my electoral map prediction, Obama won 302 to 236 electoral votes. My map is somewhat typical: the east and west coast are primarily blue states, the north central states (MN, WI, MI) are blue states, and middle and southern America are red states. Of the two major swing states (Florida and Ohio) I projected Ohio to go McCain and Florida to go to Obama. This is due to the demographics of the states:Ohio is mainly working class whites, while Florida has many minorities and a large older jewish constituancy (both groups tend to be more liberal). I think that there will be high voter turnout which will benefit Obama. The working class whites of Ohio tend to be more religious (protestant) which makes them more conservative. I believe that the only suprise on November 5th will be Florida, a state which has gone republican in recent years. I believe that this states will go blue due to the fact that Obama has the ability to mobilize the youth and minority vote. These two factors will allow him to carry florida.
In the begining of this election I hadn’t even met one person that was going to vote for McCain, but as the election went on I met more and more McCain supporters. So although I’m biased and hope that the country elects Obama, i still feel that Mccain has a chance. The map isnt completely for Obama, so maybe some new evidence will come out on either ones campaign that will switch over some voters. i deffinetly think the swing states are going to matter, just because according to the map, each candidate will recieve some big states. Since Im currently watching the election, a lot of the states on the map on the website are the actual states that gave obama and mccain their electoral votes.. but still only time will tell.
Right now, it seems that the election of Obama to president is inevitible. Looking at the map, he has clear leads over east coast and west coast states, those heavily populated with large numbers of electoral votes. McCain is likely to win many western and southern states, but they are not populated and carry few electoral votes. Cearly, to a have a chance at winning this year’s presidential election, McCain’s campaign must focus carefully on its strategy and decide what “battles” (states) are worth “fighting” (campaigning.) States like Ohio, Florida and North Carolina have for the past few years sided with Republican candidates but this year are potential toss-ups. Those states could be election deciders and both candidates must work hard to win them. Right now the poll suggests Florida is leaning to Obama, but McCain has the ability to pull it out. Another state McCain might find worthwhile to campaign heavily in is Pennsylvania. Though this state sided with Kerry in 2004, it is a state that has the chance of switching parties come Nov. 4. McCain has a lot of work to do if he wants a real chance of winning this election.
Senator McCain really needs to drastically change his approach if he wants to win the election. He needs to stop trying to attack Obama and focus on promoting himself and Sarah Palin. Right now, this is Obama’s election to lose.
I believe the east and west coast of the United States is safe with Obama. That’s just a given. What struck me as a potential change is Ohio. The map labels it as a toss up, but I doubt that is true after the countless rallies and campaigns that Obama conducted in that state. I believe in the end, Ohio will end up Obama, but for all intents and purposes I would label it right now as a leaning Obama.
I believe that Florida, a state that has drawn much controversy in the last presidential election, is definitely a toss up. Many elders go to Florida for retirement, which brings about the conservative side of Florida. So, the conservatism mixed with the liberalism, makes for a toss up state that is Florida.
Pennsylvania is another state that I think requires a change. I believe Pennsylvania is leaning Obama if not solid Obama. Not only are the polls indicative of this, but just the fact that Pennsylvania is close to very liberal states in the New England area could potentially sway Pennsylvania to a more Obama side.
Arizona I believe will go to McCain because first off, McCain is from Arizona. Moreover, the polls are in favor of him, and even though they are by a small margin, I think in the end the state’s loyalty would prevail and the people would vote for their senator.
However, in the end, I would have to go with Obama winning the presidency by a decent margin. As we all know, this election has been about change and reform. Just the fact that McCain is from the republican party – the party that has been tainted from the failed policies of Bush – will hurt him in the election. Obama who exudes change from his appearance, and policies would be the more likely candidate to win the American people in his race to be the president of the United States. I don’t believe it is going to be a close race. I would be very surprised if Obama didn’t win by a decent margin.
As for the pundits, Jeff K post #1 put it well “I think it depends on what you hear and from where.” For example, Fox News and the conservative media would probably feel surprised if Obama would win some toss up states or perhaps some leaning McCain. But the rest of the liberal media would not be really surprised considering that Obama would surely win the presidency.
I think this will be a closer race than most people are predicting. After looking at the map I believe that Obama will ultimately win, but not by as much as everyone predicts. Florida and Ohio will come into play in make some of the final decisions on election night because they both carry large amounts of points in the Electoral College and they are always swing states. I think Florida may go to McCain because of its large retiree population that tends to sway Republican. Ohio will most likely go to the Democrats because it has a few large cities, such as Cincinnati and Cleveland, which will go in favor of Obama. Plus I would consider it to be part of the northeast which is usually liberal. On November 5, 2008 I think the number of states that were red in 2004 and will change to blue will surprise people.
I think that the outcome of this election, and thus how the electoral college looked, was based solely on the issue of the economy, meaning that it was virtually impossible for McCain to pull off a win in an environment like the one of these past few months, especially the past few weeks. Maybe if he had had an strong response to the crisis he would have been able to make his case in Florida, where the economy is an important issue, but his inability to respond, and the now famous “I believe the fundamentals of the economy are strong” comment really dug him into a hole that was simply too deep.
Ohio also was nearly impossible to win, in my opinion, once the economy was on the forefront of peoples minds. The Midwest is more likely to be blue now, even more so than four years ago because people in those states are very negatively impacted by the loss of jobs and the exportation of American jobs for cheap labor. Unless there was a major attack on the country or a magic boom that had people believing that the economy was strong and stable, there would be no way for a McCain victory.
With my changes, Obama is the projected winner with 279:238. The race is defined, but still close one in my projection. Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio are all essential states. But really all of the swing states with a large ammount of electoral votes are decisive. After all, Obama does need a minimum of 270 votes to win at all. The pundits will be surprised at how many swing states went to Obama!
Looking at the past electoral prediction maps, it’s safe to say Obama would win. If you look at his projected electoral numbers, he’d be the obvious winner if the election was based off of only that map. I though before Obama might get West Virginia because of a CNN International broadcast saying that there is rising liberalism coming out of the shadows down there, maybe enough to give the conservative West Virginia to Obama. Obama will clearly win all of the northeast and the west coast, as well as Florida. Obama has about twice the amount of campaign headcourters than McCain does in Florida and I that will ultimately be to his advantage in the end. Ohio is a weird one even though it’s leaning Obama, I’m not really sure who it’s going to pick because both candidates battled hard for Ohio’s high electoral numbers. McCain will get the obvious conservative southern states as well as a few mid western states. I don’t believe he will get Pennsylvania even though he’s tried so hard to steal it back from the Democrats just because it is Biden’s territory.
In order for a candidate to (or in this case Obama because I believe the race isn’t that close) win with a majority, the swing states need to be taken. In particular, Ohio. No president has even won an election without getting the electoral votes from Ohio. In addition, Florida will also be another vital state. To me, the rest of the other swing states are not as important as Ohio or Florida because the rest of them don’t have the bigger numbers a candidate needs to win with Ohio or Florida.
The biggest shocker I think will be Iowa. I believe it will side with Obama in the end because of the impact he made on it fighting hard in the Iowa Caucus. Iowa is a state with a population that is 2% African American, so the real shocker will be to prove that not just African Americans are voting for Obama, Americans are voting for Obama.
I don’t think that this election will be close. I believe Obama has got the eastern and western states under his sleeve, and a couple of Midwest states as well. I think Obama will receive Ohio, not only because the polls are leaning towards him, but also because he avidly campaigned there during the Democratic Primaries. Though the electoral map indicates that Obama has a 5-point lead over McCain, I think McCain will ultimately win Florida. In every election since 1968 (with the exception of two), Florida has been a red state. However, my prediction could be wrong because Obama’s economic policies could register with the more industrious parts of Florida, such as Jacksonville, which has been suffering under Bush’s policies. I also believe Obama’s policies will help him secure Michigan, whose source of money mainly depends on the automotive and manufacturing industries.
I think pundits will be most surprised to see a few toss-up and states, which have typically leaned toward the right end of the political spectrum, become blue states. I expect this to happen because I don’t think many people are hopeful or confident in another Republican presidency that has caused America to enter this economic slump. Party loyalties can only go so far, especially during this turbulent period in American policies. In the end, I want to believe that the people will vote for the candidate who will appropriately accord with their beliefs and needs.
I would not be surprised if Obama won the election because his proposals for change are refreshing and different from the ones Bush has put into effect, and the ones McCain would introduce as well.
After reviewing the map and looking very in depth at the key toss up states, I knew for a fact it was not going to be a close race. Obama was to win about every toss up state except one or two. I feel that the public was very swayed on Obama’s composure and thats what will move them in one direction on election day. The election will be very conclusive. The people will know which leader they want which is a lot better than having a 50 50 race to the end. If that happens then it will be very inconclusive. On November 5th it will be an obvious win for Obama. You will see at least a 2 percent spread in almost every toss up state. As long as Obama receives florida it is a finished election. Regardless it should be a one sided Obama finish.
Right now, the polls are leaning Obama and this map shows that the toss up states appear to lean towards Obama as well. Virginia is leaning towards Obama by +4.4 and Ohio currently has a 2.5 lead over McCain. These states will have a big impact on the outcome of the election and will be a close call until the end. I find it interesting that Obama is winning Florida because it has been a Red state for a majority of the past elections. I think if Obama wins Florida on November 4th, it will set a new precedent for the state and prove that trends can indeed be broken.
I believe these predictions will not vary too much and Obama will win around 330 electoral votes on election night. After four long years of the Bush Administration and especially with the current economic crisis, I think even the usual Red states are ready for a change. If Obama secures the toss up states previously mentioned, he should have no problem. Even if the popular vote remains close, the electoral vote from the particular states like Ohio, Florida, and his usual democratic states like California should put him in the White House.
Looking at the Electoral College map, it is no surprise that the North East and West coasts are all Democrats. Compared to last year’s election, only a few states (about 5 or 6) shifted positions: for example, Florida, Virginia, and Illinois. It’s no shocker at all Obama won. As for the toss up states, I don’t see them playing a significant role in the election. Half of them have too little votes to really change the outcome. The election was not very close. Obama had a huge lead. Although it’s not what happened on election night that made a difference, it is what has been happening for the past 8 years.
The country has experienced eight years of poor leadership from President George W. Bush, that the Republican Party has a very bad reputation. American’s are tired of Bush and his policies. The U.S. has faced economic hardships and we are still in two wars. The war in Iraq I would say is the greatest issue that has given Republicans a bad name. It’s been years since we have been in there and American’s have had enough of it. According to a poll done by Los Angeles Times, About 3 out of 4 Americans, including Republicans, blame President Bush’s economic policies for putting the country in such a crisis. I don’t know if these numbers are 100% accurate, but I believe that it is somewhat true. We are stuck in a hole right now. We cannot fix the nation by using the same conservative policies. Conservatives got us into this mess, and I don’t think they will get us out by using the same strategies.
What really surprised me was Florida. During the whole election, I thought Florida, with its huge conservative elderly population, was going to be for McCain. Also for the past few presidential elections, Florida has been conservative. Also, Indiana was a conservative state since the mid 1900’s and now it has shifted to liberal. Other than these main points, the electoral map seems almost the same as many others. The east and west coast are pretty much democratic, while the south and Midwest are republicans.
Obviously, I am posting a little late but I am not at all surprised at how the election turned out. In my opinion, it was a given that Obama would win the North, West and the vast majority of the East coast. As for the swing states, I would have to agree with Mohammed. Obama was so far ahead of the game so early on that winning the larger states like Ohio and Virginia was beneficial but in the long run it really wouldnt have made much of a difference. It was, however, surprising to see how many states voted democratic compared to the Bush/Kerry election. Being that Bush won so many states that election year that it was refreshing to see more blue on the map this year.
2B: I think that Obama had been moving the tide over the whole election process. In my opinion, McCain needed a miracle to beat out the democratic hopeful.
I think on November 5th a lot of people may have been surprised to see that Ohio and virginia among other states were high lighted with the color blue. The country made a statement in a huge way through this election and the blue on the latest map says it all.
The RCP electoral map showed that President Elect Obama was going to win the election by a large margin, RCP was right. Democrats won all the State they are projected to win and took some of the leaning Red States from the Republicans. His campaign to neutralize the blue state/ red state was brilliant. Who would have thought that Senator Obama could possibly win Indiana, Florida, North Carolina or Virginia? President elect Obama’s team did a great job by driving the “Change” message home, and by refusing to let Senator McCain’s negative attacks distracted his campaign. Obama showed true leadership during the economic crisis and he was justly rewarded. People are looking for a new direction from the Republican Party’s policies of the last 8 years, which did not serve our country well. What this past election showed us is that our country is truly ready for a change, although, Obama was leading in most polls, most observers believe that people may change their mind about voting for a Black man once they entered into the voting booth (the so called “Bradley Effect”). Not in this election. In the end, Americans chose the right person for the job and America improved her image around the world. Change has truly come to America.
Now that the election is over, it is interesting to compare the final electoral map and the RCP map. The RCP map is dead on: all the “solid” and “leaning” states turned out to be exactly as predicted. Obama was able to win very important “toss-up” states as well, such as Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. The RCP map very clearly foreshadows Obama’s “electoral HULK SMASH”, as IraqYouBreak once brilliantly stated.
Honestly, as the election wore on, I don’t think that McCain stood much of a chance against Obama. McCain’s accusations of Obama being too inexperienced for the job were not as effective as Obama’s McCain-Bush comparisons. This is because the American people are so fed up with Bush’s failed policies that an inexperienced Democrat seems much more idealic than a Republican Bush mini-me.
It really is not surprise the the northeast and west coasts went Democratic, that is typical. But the key states the Obama won can be attributed to his brillian campaign.
At first I thought the race was going to be close but as we drew closer and closer to election day it was more in favor of Obama, and as we see the statistics were right. I think the defining moment was when Obama captured Virginia then North Carolina two formally conservative states in more than one aspect (I dont need to say it we all know what I mean). His victory in these states was the blatent signal to anyone eho missed the siren going off as to how much peopl were ready for something new. I know it is cliché but that is what we have been saying from the beginning of this two year campaign it is the old vs. new, the future vs. the past, and over turning Bushes policies.
The Electoral maps were right on target for this election which actually surprised me since in the last two elections both democratic candidates were pitted to win certain states like their home state and lost it.