With the polls heavily leaning toward Obama, political discussion has shifted once again to questions about race. More specifically, people are talking about the troubling notion of people not accurately reporting their vote to pollsters or changing their minds about who they vote for purely based on an individual’s race.
A Time Magazine article, The Bradley Effect, describes the origin of voting decisions based on race and weighs in on the debate about what role, if any, it will have on the outcome of the election. Quite interestingly, another report from fivethirtyeight.com, provides a contrasting view that shows how Obama actually exceeded predictions from polls about his success in the 2008 Democratic primary, effectively refuting the “Bradley effect”.
Discussion Question:
Do you believe the “Bradley effect” will: 1) be a game changer; 2) have a small effect on election results, but not change the outcome; 3) have no effect at all on the presidential race; or 4) be impossible to measure?
The Bradley effect is an interesting theory on election politics because no matter how much we speculate, it will always be guesswork: people do lie about who they will vote for. There will be some people who say they’ll vote for one and then do the opposite. Of course race is a touchy and essential subject to cover in this election.
I think, in this case, the Bradley Effect is slightly overrated. The races that correlated with the Bradley effect were on state levels usually, so perhaps on the larger, national scale, things may turn out differently. Also this race is seen fairly clearly through the eyes of policy, which is a little shocking to me. Right now things are a little shaky, and in shaky times most people hop next to the candidate whose POLICIES appear most beneficial, no matter what race, orientation, etc.
I do think that the Bradley effect will come into play. How much i dont know. I think that the effect the economy has put on average white people will sway them into believing that even though Obama is black the economical issues will push whites into voting for him. However these theories can never be 100% accurate and i do think that it will only affect a small amount of people.
the bradley effect will change the popular vote percentages in relation to what the pre-election polls say. if a voter is intending to vote for Obama, he will tell the poller that he is voting for Obama. However, some people who are intending to vote for McCain might actually say they are voting for Obama. So in reality, maybe 2% of the popular vote that was “expected” to go to Obama may be switched over to McCain. Since Obama has such a commanding lead, however, even with the bradley effect or sampling error, he should still pull off a large popular vote lead and the electoral college should still propel Obama to the victory. The Bradley Effect will most likely have an effect but nothing significant enough to prevent Obama from becoming president.
While I’d like to say the Bradley effect will have no effect on this year’s election, looking at the its history presented in the Time article it seems hard to belived it will not be a factor.
However, I’m fairly confident it will not be a game changer. I’d like to think that since Bradley’s ‘82 election and Washington’s ‘83 win, we’ve come a long way in terms of racial discrimination. I’m not saying that it’s not there, I just don’t think it will be as large a factor as it was in the eighties.
I think that the Bradley Effect will take its toll on the polls, just not enough to swing enough votes to McCain’s side for him to pull off the win. My guestimate is that 1-2 percent of the votes will turn in McCains favor but Obama will still win.
I believe that the “Bradley Effect” will have a small effect on the election results, but I highly doubt that it will change the outcome. I think that people are being a little unrealistic and exaggerated. In my opinion, the majority of people aren’t aiming for deceptiveness or lying when it comes to the election. You support who you support and that’s that. Some believe that people will say they’re for Obama but when they get to the polls they’ll choose McCain because he’s white. I strongly disagree with this notion of closeted racism. Firstly, for a black man to have gotten this far in the election process is monumental and I think that it speaks volumes about how much America and her people have evolved. If, however, someone is racist then they most likely haven’t suppported Obama from the very beginning and, therefore, he won’t be losing those votes. I think that a few people will have a change of heart but by now people should have a good idea of who they’re voting for with the election just around the corner. I don’t think that many people will change their minds on a whim once the curtain closes. I would like to think that America is a more steadfast nation than that.
I do believe that the “Bradley Effect” is both real and will be a factor; however, I do not think it will substantially effect the outcome. The majority of states have significant leanings one way or another, therefore, the couple of people who may be effected by this will not significantly sway the votes. Plus, even if McCain wins all the states that are wavering between him and Obama (really the only place those few voters who hide their true political leanings will be able to effect the race are in these states), Obama still wins the overall election.
I don’t fully understand how in this day and age the fear of racism is so strong. We all have racist tendencies that will never cease to exist, but really when it comes down to it it’s just too hard to believe that people actually fudge who they will vote for based off of some superficial idea that people actually care and actually make assumptions against them for maybe choosing a white man over a black man. This isn’t to say race doesn’t play a factor in the campaign, as it certainly does in many respects, but I think (or maybe it’s just ‘hope’ that I have) that most Americans nowadays realize that the fate of our country shouldn’t be based on some petty variances in the usual “code” of what the typical president is in the United States. Yes, we all talk about the former presidents as being the fairly simple white, christian bureaucratic men that they were, but times have changed. We are in an age of mankind in which it’s possible to annihilate cities and states with a single cylinder of metal and the potential for even deadlier forms of nuclear weaponry is always looming in the not-so-distant future. The tensions between the world powers getting ever so close to their boiling points. Between some of the Baltic states to our lovely middle eastern affairs, the mess in the world seems to just spread around like mud on an infant. It seems like I’ve gotten off topic, but my point is that the stupidity of playing off of that race card, either in a so called “positive” way or a negative way (if you dare to go down that road, that is) is just a dangerous diversion to what truly lies on the road ahead. If people are really that ignorant in America, that they will lie about their vote based purely on what they believe the reaction will turn up from society, then I don’t know what to think about the rest of America. Sometimes I’m in this mindset that every American must think like I do, and that they are crazy for not doing so. Are we truly a great country if we are so easily affected by such primitive views? But then again (and here’s where the great trade of debate comes in) I can argue against myself in saying that if people, like so much of the youth vote, are strongly affected by Obama’s race that makes him MORE attractive to them, then why not can the opposite be true, in theory? Could the idea of change be repulsive to someone to the extent that a change in race is just some sort of passive metaphor for the larger picture of the country? Because that’s how I’ve seen Obama in the past weeks. I’m not one to focus on the color of someone’s skin for reasons such as this, but when it comes to this presidential campaign, I’ve developed different views. It just seems to me that Obama represents such a large change in the U.S. and his race coincides with that idea and helps further it by making him seem even more of the atypical president that would be more willing to change the route of the nation. It’s a sort of unintentional symbolic representation of Obama’s liberal principles of “Change We Can Believe In.” I mean think about it, the civil rights movement was a large change, was it not? And the same was true at that time. We had, rising to prominence, a man who was powerful and strong in so many respects due to his powerful views on civil equality and liberty, and his race placed him on a platform that made people BELIEVE that he WAS change, not just standing up for it. I’m not saying that Obama is any Martin Luther King Jr., but the role his race plays in this campaign is similar in the respect that it creates an image that people can grasp onto that helps people grasp the idea of a changing of course more. So will the Bradley Effect change the course of the campaign? I hope not. Again, I live in a fairly liberal area where I don’t get to hear that many variant opinions other than “Obama Biden 2008!” so I can’t put words into people’s mouths or judge them based off of my own superficial theories and sort of preconceived notions. This campaign has also been running for so long, even when it came down to three candidates, that I think the division in the polls would have been far off then rather than now. We haven’t seen a huge amount of activity in the race column of the political attack chart, which is why I see the large overall division between Obama and McCain as being mostly legitimate. Then again, for all I know, I could be the only person in the United States who thinks about this and I could be completely off. I just try to hope for the best and hope that people are not truly as ignorant as my pessimistic mind seems to make them out to be. I’ve said ‘hope’ a lot in this reply, because that’s what my mind has been set on: hope that America will be able to ramble its way back to equilibrium and hope that the typical American I see in my mind isn’t looking at race and lying to pollers because of some silly fear of medial retaliation. If it seems like I’m being arrogant in almost putting myself up on a pedestal, I’d like to say that I am really not trying to. I have a tendency to think in my mind what the perfect United States of America would be and I always “hope” that we will take more and more steps at reaching that point. Will we ever reach it? Probably not, but this election is monumental, if not for the candidates themselves but for the times that will follow. So many of us feel helpless in the large world perspective, and all we really, truly have is that small, insignificant four lettered word that people have clung to ever since the beginning of civilization, and all that we will be able to hold onto in the frightening future mankind has to hold.
I believe that the Bradley effect is real, but will not dramatically effect the election. I wouldn’t say it would be a game changer, but more of a game shifter. It will be difficult to measure, but if Barack Obama loses by a lot, it will be quite obvious why. Most states have made up their minds about which candidate they are voting for so it shouldn’t be a huge deciding factor.
I think that the Bradley effect will change some of the results of this election. It is very sad that in 2008 we are still talking about race. People say that America has come so far with racism but it seems as though it is still there just hidden. The Bradley effect will not change the outcome of the election but it will change some votes. Recently when asked out this issue Obama has said that he not worried about it because there are people who will vote for him just because he is black. I think that Obama stands for something that America needs and I think that polls show that the American public believe is what he says
I think that it is very hard to predict how much of an impact the Bradley effect will have on this election. While I do beleive that the polls may be slightly inaccurate, it is almost impossible to tell how much at this point.
There have been many instances in the past, as discussed in teh first article, in which African-American candidates have held significant leads in the polls and then a clear-cut victory has turned into a nail-biter or even a loss. What happens is, many people say they are going to vote for the black candidate, but when it comes down to it, some people still have a problem with having a minority in office. The reason this makes the polls inaccurate is because they od not want people to know about their racist inhibitiions, so they lie about their choice both in polls and after they leave the voting booth.
In this election, I think that it will definitely have some affect on the results, but not enough to change the outomce. I think that Obama is far enough ahead in the polls at this point that the Bradley Effect will not be enough to change the results. While it may make some swing states closer, and even give McCain some that Obama thought he had, Obama’s lead in the polls is continually growing and a think the pace that they are growing at is large enough to keep the Bradley Effect from changing the outcome of the election.
It is very difficult to predict what affect Obama’s race will have on the voter’s decisions on November 4th. If I were to wager to a guess I would say that the “Bradley Effect” would have a very small affect on the results of the polls. In the year 2008 I can’t believe that Americans still can’t handle the fact that a black man can be a powerful political leader. I have faith in the American people that when they get into the voting booths they will make a decision based on ability and policy and not ethnicity.
I think that the Bradley Effect will have little effect on the election results. After all this time, and hearing both the candidates speak, I think that people have a clear favorite based on policies and not on race. Also, although polls are sometimes inaccurate I feel as though our country has come along way in twenty years on the premise of race, and with that said the Bradley Effect is insignificant. However, if the results are completely not parallel to what the polls have been predicting, then some will say that the Bradley Effect did change it. All in all though, this ‘force’ is immeasurable, no where in the polls or on the ballot does it ask any questions related to preference of race. Therefore, whether it changed the votes will never truly be known; however, my take on the situation is that it wont, as many people look at the issues and the policies as opposed to the color of ones’ skin.
The Bradley Effect is a very interesting theory and while I do not think it will change the outcome of the election, I do think it will have a relatively significant impact on the number of electoral votes Obama receives. There are many people in this country who believe Obama is not fit to run our country based on the fact that he is African American. However, most of these people know that if they gave that as their reason for voting for McCain that wouldn’t be acceptable. These people are the ones who are going to shock the country on election day by going into the polls and giving McCain more votes then predicted. Luckily for Obama, I think he is so far ahead in this presidential race already that even if McCain does get more votes than anticipated, Obama’s significant lead will bring him into office.
Although there appears to be valid evidence to support the Bradley effect, it is unlikely to significantly impact this election between Obama and McCain. Race has become a much less charged issue over the past few decades. The author cites that upon exhaustive studies of elections from the 80’s to 90’s, it appears that the Bradley effect became a non-issue around the mid 1990’s when certain racially-charged issues began to recede from public view. It is difficult to fully estimate, of course, the impact that this will actually have on election day. However, Obama appears to have really pushed to get more minorities registered to vote- something that will definitely serve to his benefit. While there is the outside chance that Obama might fall prey to the Bradley effect, it probably is not going to be much of an issue come election day.
In my opinion, I don’t think the Bradley effect has any real merit. It might have held some truth twenty years ago, but I believe that we’re progressive enough that things have changed since then. Call me naive, but I honestly don’t see people today lying to pollsters out of the fear of being conceived as a rascist. The Bradley effect is an unfair concept as well. If McCain beats Obama, I sincerely hope it’s because more people felt that his policies were better, not because he’s white and Obama’s black. By chalking it up to the Bradley effect, it would seemingly minimize McCain’s victory.
Honestly, I don’t think it can be honestly said whether or not the Bradley effect will have any impact on this election. Personally I feel that it lacks any true evidence. There’s no substantive evidence that says these people said one thing and did another because they didn’t want to be called rascist. I think that there’s so many different reasons that the outcome could change and I don’t believe there’s any way for us to know what really changed it.
I think that the Bradley effect will definitely be present in this election. Even if people in America want to admit it or not, race is still a big issue. I feel that even though Obama is in the lead by double digits, the polls are a little unrealistic. There will be a big number whites that say they support Obama, but once they get into the booth all by themself, they aren’t going to vote for Obama. I truly think that crystalline3rain is naive because race is still a problem today in this country. When some white Obama supporters get in the poll booth, campaigns won’t really matter anymore. To some, they will still see Obama as a black man and they won’t want him in the White House. By saying this doesn’t lessen McCain’s victory if he wins because Obama has been winning in all the polls by a good amount. I hope that Obama’s big lead won’t disappear before his eyes on November 4th, but the Bradley effect will have an impact on this election whether people want to admit it or not.
I think that the Bradley Effect will impact the election slightly, but I don’t think it will cause a change in the outcome. I believe it is possible that some people are lying in the polls, but not enough so that Obama will not still be ahead at the end of the day. I would like to believe that in today’s world race does not play a part in politics, but it obviously does. When the idea of the Bradley Effect was originally defined the race issues were much more prevalent in the US society. Today although some bias remains, most people are able to look past race and see the policies and choose a candidate based on their plan for our country.
I think, to an extent, the Bradley Effect still exists, though it has certianlly diminished since many years ago. Let’s be completely honest, racism still plays a role in our nation today. It reaches as far up as liberal New England and you can bet its present in the Bible Belt south. This being said, we obviously have come a long way since Bradley ran for governor. I do not believe racist tendencies will be enough to erase the lead Obama currently has. The lead seems too large and I hope the progress that our Country has made is to great for racism to be a deciding factor in the election. But, I think it will play a small role.
The second article cited the democratic primaries and Obama’s success during them as disproving the Bradley Effect. I would like to point out that on the whole (obviously with some exceptions) racism from registered democrats is not likely to play a huge role in the Bradley Effect. I am not at all saying that all republicans and conservatives are racist but either out of the goodness of their hearts, or of fear of being labeled a racist by others, democrats for the most part will not vote based on racist judgements. Obviously, there are some racist democrats, and tens of millions of republicans who for voting purposes, race is of on consequence, but strictly by numbers, i believe there are more people who for race is an issue that associate themselves with conservative ideals then do with liberal ones. Therefore, I feel that the democratic primaries are not sufficient proof that the Bradley effect no longer exists.
However, at the same time, the idea of the “Reverse Bradley Effect” in my opinion, holds weight. It is that there are southern voters who support Obama and will vote for him on election day that would never admit to their friends, or pollsters, that they would vote for a black man. I think that both the Bradley Effect and the “Reverse Bradley Effect” will play a part in the upcoming election. However, I do not believe, that either will be strong enough to alter the course of the election drastically.
Oh, it is rather unfortunate how racial prejudices still exist in today’s world. I do believe that the Bradley Effect does occur from time to time. However, it seems from the looks of how the race between Obama and McCain have progressed, the Bradley Effect would have a major impact on the results. This election is straight up politics. There will be little to no what-ifs and racial cards pulled out. The polls of the public have spoken their mind debate after debate and I’m sure come election day on November fourth, everything will be smooth sailing as well.
It is impossible to say that Obama’s race will not play at least a small factor in this election for at least SOME people based on this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRqcfqiXCX0. This video, taken in Ohio, documents some people’s reactions to the situation of Obama winning. In my opinion, there will always be extremists and people who are more ignorant than others.
I do agree with other posters though that it is difficult to truly measure how much of an effect it will have on the results of the election. People WILL lie about who they voted for to others or say certain things to protect themselves. They could vote for Obama but lie about it to people who are more ignorant, OR vote for McCain and lie about it to people who are more progressive in order to be accepted. I think it can go either way. I completely agree with ewt6 – “It is very sad that in 2008 we are still talking about race. People say that America has come so far with racism but it seems as though it is still there just hidden.” Racism is still here and plays a role in many things; however, if the Bradley Effect DOES influence the election in any way, I think it will be a minor influence and will not completely alter the results.
The Bradley Effect will not be a poll shifter in this years presidential election. It would be ignorant to suggest that racism no longer exists, but it is no where near as prevalant as it once was. Today’s voters are most likely not concerned about the ethnicity of our president. Especially with the economic crisis at hand, the color of our president is the least of our concerns. In fact, it is not even a concern at all.
Back in 1982, the Bradley Effect was probably a real concern. Today, however, this nation is no longer really a white majority. America has become the even melting pot. Each race and ethnicity is, for the most part, evenly represented in America. The white majority has diminished. Within the next couple of years the white race will most likely become the majority. So I do not think that racial bias will play a big role in this years election. There are so many more black voters that are voting in this election.
In my opinion I feel that while the Bradley Effect is real, it will not effect the election significantly. It would be dumb to say that it won’t happen at all because it is human nature to lie, especially about a sensative topic. I think though by now most people in our country have got over racist feelings and it is just a slight minority who practice the Bradley Effect. In the article the author himself writes that the Bradley Effect died down by the mid 90’s. At this time most people have picked out their candidate so it should not impact it that much.
I think the “Bradley Effect” will have a small impact, but will not change the results of the election. The argument that Obama outperformed his polls in the primaries by +3.3 in the fivethirtyeight.com article is most convincing in my opinion. This is the candidate who went into the primaries against Hillary Clinton, who is white and was considered a “favorite” of sorts at the time, and won the candidacy.
The kind of racially charged politics concerning welfare that were still prominent in the 80s and 90s, as the article says, are fortunately not at the forefront anymore. Hopefully this prevents people from thinking of Obama as the “black candidate,” or as someone who would create policy only beneficial to black Americans. I think most Americans have moved on from that kind of thinking, especially after seeing Obama’s success and popularity.
There is no doubt that some voters will lie to pollsters and that polling data can be imperfect, but I hope that people voting for John McCain are voting for him for reasons other than his race, just as I hope people voting for Barack Obama are voting for him for reasons other than his race.
I also agree that the buzz about the “Bradley Effect” is a way to fill the 24-hour news cycle in a time where Obama has a clear lead, making it even more clear that this phenomenon is not going to have a considerable effect on November 4.
The Bradley Effect may still be present, but it will not affect the election. Some people ARE going to lie about who they are voting for- hopefully, this is a very small percentage of people. While the Bradley Effect may have existed in the 80’s and 90’s, I feel that it is really not present anymore. There was a different culture in the 80’s- you cannot confuse the past with the present.
Actually, based on what the articles said about Obama outperforming on election day, I think Obama being black HELPS him. I think that people will vote for Obama because he is black; they will not vote for Mccain because they want a white president instead of a black president.
I feel that the Bradley effect will be present in this election but will not play a significant role. I think that with the circumstances that we are in today, voters hopefully will not be looking at the color of the person’s skin when deciding who can lead us out of turmoil. Rather they will have listened to the speeches and debates and base their decision off that information. If anything I feel that this Bradley effect has more to do with those who are uneducated. The idea of the Bradley effect is almost sickening and it would be a shame to see it happen in this election.
I disagree with previous posters who have stated that the Bradley effect will contribute significantly to this year’s election. If the election were to have been held in the middle of July, it certainly would have played a role. However, the election is being held now – in Fall – in the heart of the credit crisis, quite possibly on the edge of the cliff of the next true recession. If that is the case, then I find it impossible to believe that race will be a deciding factor in the race. It is an undeniable truth, that people will abandon their principals – liberal or conservative – in a time of crisis, in favor of absolute pragmatism.
Whether we want to believe it or not, race is still a living breathing dragon that is still prevalent in our society, and even more signifantly, I believe that it is, and will impact the 2008 Presidential Election. To honestly think that the American people are above looking at race as an issue is an illusion. We live in a society where race is not talked about as openly as it is practiced daily, and does not deny the fact that it is still there. I’d like for this election to go unbiased, and for people to walk into the polls believing in a candidate because of their issues and plans, not their race, but I don’t think that will happen. I have faith that Barack Obama has hopefully helped people overcome their doubts on racism through his various speeches and goals, but the average American will only see him for who he is, which is a black man. I feel like it will be easier to measure, because there are those states where less than 50% percent vote, and it is known as a more conservative state. I think that people will have more of a reason to vote if they are against an African-American man running this country, and will take that extra measure to ensure the fact that he doesn’t ergo voting will be more prevalent than usual in these states. At this point in the race, however, Obama is ahead of McCain significantly, but I think that the actual election day is an entirely different ball game.
I have no doubt that the Bradly Effect at one point existed and that it does still exist today on a much smaller scale. I find it hard to believe that it will really play a significant role in the outcome of this election. Our country has come a long way and I don’t think that the majority of the people will vote based on race. Of course there will be some uneducated people who will vote based on race, but it would only be a small amount and I don’t believe it will hift the election. While the polls are sometimes accurate, and other times not, they never exactly parallel the outcome. I’m sure that some people have been “lying” in the polls, but I don’t believe it will play a significant role in who is elected president.
I do not think the Bradley effect will have any effect at all on this election. There are too many people in the country who care about the issues nowadays rather than race, origin, or things of that nature. Simply put, Americans are revealing who they think they would vote for in the polls, and I think they are an extremely accurate representation of what the actual outcome will be like. I also think that the endorsement of Obama by Colin Powell will have a profound effect for independent and swing votes, tipping the scales in the Democratic nominee’s favor.
I think that the Bradley effect this election in some ways but not as drastically as some may expect. The idea came into my mind when Obama won the democratic canidate position. If people will say they are voting for Obama becuase it would seem wrong to say otherwise, but i think the people of the U.S are ready for change. Whether or not people are being truthful or not is hard to tell. As a teen I know it looks “bad” to like McCain, he’s old fashioned, is not being potrayed very well, and well old… Parents of course this may not really affect their views, but it is the first presidential debate televised was people wanted the more attractive man to win. In this case it’s Obama.
However I do believe this nation is ready for a change and Obama may be the change we’re searching for. I think Obama has worked hard and actually earned his lead. So when people say I’m going to vote for Obama, they may actually do so.
I think the Bradley effect may very well exist. It seems like a possible explanation for some voting patterns. On the other hand I think it is very difficult to measure its effect on the election. First of all, there are so many other additional factors involved. In fact, many of the polls seeming to indicate a recurrence of the Bradley effect in this year’s election may be biased or inaccurate for other reasons. In addition, in order to truly measure this phenomenon, a very accurate poll would have to be taken after the election, asking people who may have lied to pollsters about their motives before the election to tell the truth afterwards. Basically, while it seems that this may have some small effect on the election, it is really impossible to tell.
The Bradley effect will have a small effect in the popular vote but I doubt its magnitude will be enough to make a real difference. It will play a larger role in certain demographics than in others. The large difference in the polls now is not likely to what we will see on election day, the gap will be much smaller, but the ultimate outcome will most likely be the same.
The bradley effect will have an effect in the election. Although many people wish it wouldnt it still will. Some of the toss up states might even come down to the bradley effect as sad as it is. Race means a lot to many people, and it will be a huge part in this election and will make a very big difference.
I think the Bradley Effect will have an effect although it would not change the result. The Bradley Effect is not just backed up by a single election- the Times article gave several examples of race being the most likely factor to influence election. Obama is roughly leading by ten points and in order to counter the Bradley Effect, the Times article stated that he must lead in polls by at least 6-9 points. Of course, ten is greater than 9, so Obama’s chances of winning the election are still strong. Still I do not see the Bradley effect having as much of a role as it did in the past. Racism, though existent, is not as apparent as it was a couple decades ago, and will not be as significant as it was in the Bradley election.
Personally the Bradley Effect will ultimately decide this election. The American people may say that they will vote for Obama, but in reality it is just to conform to the opinion of the country. Obama is made out to be a celebrity and the newest big thing, and personally people just see him as a celebrity in the lime light 24-7. This appeal will die down as soon as the voters get in the booth. People will truly start to think about the things that he will take away from them with taxes and his new organizations. They will figure out that John McCain will let them keep their money and allow them to use it on themselves.
Yes there is a race issue in this as well. Obama is a head in Virginia by a slight margin. This will most likely change when election time comes around because of the history of the state. They have been predominantly voting for the Republican Party and they will hopefully follow their past. This also goes along with how the Republican Party manages to get enough voters out by election time without using sneaky tactics, like ACORN. My cousin is one of the leading men in the ACORN project in California and even with all the Federal investigations and solid proof, he will still not recognize that dead people can’t vote. Yes this is kind of irrelevant but it plays into the factor that the Bradley Effect is true when it comes to this election, not only because of the race but experience. The liberal media boosts Obama to the point where he is, to me, considered a celebrity. People like celebrities but when it comes f down to it, most celebrities can’t run a country.
Whether we want to believe it or not, it has been proven that the Bradley effect does exists. One candidate can never be overly confident because this effect can swing the direction of the election in the other direction quickly and surprisingly. Although, I do not feel it will be a game changer, it will have a small effect on the election results. However, I feel my reasoning behind my conclusion may be different than the actually election results. I think since Obama has such of an enormous lead that the Bradley effect will not have a huge effect on the election, but in reality it may be an even greater effect because of race. I wish in our country and in our time that we would be able to say race does not have a role when people vote in political polls and on Election Day, but that is not true. The results may vary substantially from the actually voting booth on Election Day than on the political polls from the past few weeks. The only way we will find out of the Bradley effect is on November 4th. I guess we will have to wait and see.
In the end, I do believe that the Bradley Effect will have an impact on the election. However, I think that the impact it will have is going to be very small. When debating over the Bradely Effect, it is important to remember what the FiveThirtyEight article states. It reminds the reader that the Bradely Effect doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not someone will vote against a candidate due to their race, but whether they would lie to the polls about it. Also, I think that the Bradely Effect, which might have been a factor in the 1980’s and 1990’s, is less applicable now because (I believe) that America is much less racist in present society than it was back then. So in the end, though it might have a tiny impact on the votes, the Bradely Effect will not significantly alter the elction results.
Because our country is not in the best shape, and the economy isn’t doing well, and the war is taking precious lives each day, I don’t think the Bradley effect will be seen in this election. I think voters want to see change and improvement in our country and are sick of George Bush and his policies so I don’t think voters (at least most) will be looking at race this November. People will say who they are voting for because they believe that person should be in the White House. Why lie about it? We’re in the 21st century here, race should not be be an issue whatsoever. We’ll just have to wait and see what really happens on November 4th.
It is quite sad that Obama will have to be the next victim of the Bradley effect. Ideally, Americans are supposed to vote for the candidates based on their political views and what they plan to do once they are elected. It is evident however that race, origin, culture, religion etc. do play a role in the outcome and do affect the public opinion on a candidate. For example, the Bradley effect might put McCain over the top in southern states such as Mississippi.
Although I do believe that the Bradley effect will change the outcome of the election, it still seems to me that Obama will win by a small margin. Republicans have set a bad reputation.
I would also like to state that if racism is going to play a major role in this election, it would partially be the media’s fault. The media has focused so much on the fact that Obama is a black man with Muslim parents and might have some affiliation with terrorists. Just because he is black and is related to a Muslim, the post 9/11 America label’s him a terrorist. Nothing about race, religion, or origin should be considered when voting for this election (other than the fact that Obama is the first black president… which is more of a fact and accomplishment than a racial statement).
What really annoys me though is that if anyone was to take a shot at Obama (if he were to become president) that person would automatically be labeled racist by the media. This shows the influence of the media on the Bradley effect.
But really, there is no accurate way to analyze the effects of the race card. Theres way too many people in the U.S. who like to keep their true opinions to themselves.
Unfortunately, racism exists all around us. Some areas it is more obvious and frequent but it is everywhere. I certainly hope race doesn’t become a deciding factor in the election, but I think it has. I think both studies are true to some extent; even without hardcore evidence, I feel that some people may be swayed to not vote for Obama because of his race, therefore proving the Bradely Effect. However, I also feel that minorities will be swayed to vote for Obama even if they have little knowledge of both candidates and their own political ideologies because Obama is considered a minority. I think in the end these will cancel out and equal each other and not make so much of an impact and I hope that one day we won’t have to worry about someone’s race effecting people’s decisions and opinions
Like everyone above me has already mentioned, there is and always will be racism in this country. However, it’s shown in different ways. Racisim is scattered secretly throughout the northern and more liberal states, but is portrayed loud and clear in southern more conservative states.
Racism especially in the south is something those people have grown up with as did their ancestors before them. They have no problem calling an African American person the “n” word. That verbal racism in the south will not go away because of their strict religion and cultural upbringing. REGUARDLESS if it’s 1964 or 2042. Mind you, this mindset will decrease in moderation, but it will always be more verbal and more open than the north because of the south’s historical cultural differences.
The Bradley Effect to me is extremely interesting. I know from personal experiences that people WILL lie about being racist in order to gain social acceptance in our corner of the country. However, I don’t believe that the Bradley Effect will make much of an impact on the polls. Keep in mind that the Bradley Effect started in the 80’s. Going by this, I think it’s safe to say that the racism in the north and more liberal states has gone down to a degree where the Bradley Effect will not impact the polls. To state the obvious, people won’t vote for Obama because he’s black, but the percentage of people who lie about voting for Obama I think won’t be enough to change the 6 or 7 point lead Obama currently has over McCain.
However, anything can happen. Especially in this election where historical records are being broken everyday.
I do believe that race will have a slight effect on the results of this election. There are people of color out in America who willingly admit that they will vote for Barack Obama because he is African American. His race definately appeals to certain voters because they think they can relate to him. This can also work against him, though, because racism still exists in America, however less prominently than before. However, I think that in the end, his race will ultimately help him. People want to see him as an “agent of change” and not being and old, white, rich guy definately physically and visually qualifies you for this. As much as we do not want to admit it, we are influenced by race in one way or another. The only thing we can do to try and counteract this trend is to stress the importance of the issues being discussed and to try and educate the populace as to what they concern.
The Bradley Effect would have probably been more accurate 50 years ago. Now that times are changing and America is becoming more tolerant of race mostly in the West and North East, race would probably have a small factor in this election. When polls where conducted most people said Obama being African American did not bother them. I personally think those polls are not that accurate because if someone does have a problem with Obama being African American there not going to say it.
The Bradley effect is certainly an interesting theory. This theory will have a very small, if any, impact in the election. This election is too full of critical issues for race to be considered in the voter’s decision. There are a few voters out there who either don’t understand or are apathetic towards the issues. These will be the voters that take race into effect and will be the cause of the minor Bradley effect in this election. However, this trend will not be present in the rest of the voters. They most likely will just focus on the issues and vote for whom they feel is most able to be president. This election is going to be decided solely on the issues and not the race of the candidates.
I think the “Bradley” effect WAS something to take into account early on in the election season. I think that if the Bradley effect was going to have a serious impact on the election it would have happened already and Obama would be no where near the Oval Office. However, I think the American people realized that this election is much more about the issues that really matter and they were able to put aside the trivial issues such as race. On Politico.com, they ran an article recently that explained how even racists were voting for Obama because they were able to put aside their differences and realize that America needs serious change and that Obama is the right man to do it. I think we are in an age where a majority of the America electorate have don’t see color and we’re seeing that happen in this election.
I think that the Bradley effect will have an effect on the election. However,no one can know for sure how much of an effect it will have on the election. Unfortunatly alot of people in america are focused on race, despite what people say in public. I think that some people will defintly be voting for Obama because he’s black and i believe some people will not be voting for him because he’s black. The fact that people are looking at race before issues is sad but its something that is definently going to happen. Alot of importance is being placed on the polls recently. Currently obama is ahead, but i don’t think that it means anything. The polls always close up when it gets closer to the election and i wouldn’t be surprised if McCain did win. In the upcoming weeks anything can happen.
I believe the Bradley effect is real, and will have an impact on the election, but to what extent remains to be seen. It is impossible to predict, or even measure how many voters switched their vote after the polls were taken. I would hope that our country has progressed enough to be “color blind” when choosing the person who will be leading our country for the next four years.
However, I do believe that if Obama maintains the lead he has now, the Bradley effect will not influence the final outcome. I think the margin of voters that will switch their votes because Obama is black will be small enough not to sway their entire state. But in the past few days, we have seen McCain gaining ground in some of the polls, so it may come down to one or two deciding states, and if those one or two states decide they can not handle a black President, then John McCain will be our next President.
All in all, a candidate should be picked based on their leadership skills and the strength of their policies, not the color of their skin. What is it saying about our country if that is the deciding factor in this election? Nothing good at all.
I don’t think that the Bradley effect will come into play at all in this election. I think that at this point in time race is not as big a factor as it once was. Yes there are still people in this country that are skeptical about the race of the President but I think that for the most part people don’t consider race when they go to the polls. Obama has the lead in the race as of right now and the way things are looking it doesn’t seem as though he will let his lead. Obama and McCain are gaining the support of their voters based on their policies and if Obama has the support and i don’t think that the voters will suddenly change their minds about voting for Obama versus McCain in the next few weeks just because Obama is African- American.
I was about to say point out that Obama wouldn’t have gotten as far as he did if race was be the deciding factor, and also ask that if race played such a huge part, why is he ahead in the polls right now? Then I stopped and thought about the whole situation a little more, realizing that if Obama did lose a big factor in his losing probably would be his race. A big part of Obama’s underdog personality is his race. We never had a black president before, and so for many years to come there will still be people, probably older and more conservative not ready to have one. If you add those people in the country up, it is a pretty powerful group, with some people in it who may not even realize that his race is affecting their decision.
I do believe the Bradley effect will be a factor in this election. No one can possibly predict how much of an effect it will have on this election. People may say in the polls that they will be voting for Obama because they do not want to seem racist but usually a lot of the people that are for Obama would never vote for McCain (and especially Palin). I believe the Bradley effect has some truth to it but I think in this election inparticular that it is almost impossible to measure.
I too believe that the “Bradley effect” will become a factor in this election. I personally hate to say it, but once a person is behind that curtain, no matter how much they supported a candidate publically, it can disappear once they are in privacy. I do not believe that it will have a major part in this election, but I feel as though some people will go with their personal opinions on having a possible black president. Despite this, most people that support Obama want him to win, and push racism aside. It is impossible to calculate now, but we shall see the results on Election Day.
The one thing that every blogger seems to have noted is that its “hard to tell” the extent at which the Bradley Effect will play out in the election, but I think there are a few points that need to be addressed the upcoming presidential elections that are different then previous elections.
Firstly the elections noted in the Times Article were not on the national level. It is hard to believe that the possible percent error that may occur in the polls due to the Bradley Effect would be great enough to effect an election the size of the presidential election…
Nextly, most people who do not want to vote for Barack Obama have specific reasons for it… they do not perscribe to his specific economic policies, they believe he will redistribute wealth too much or they think that the amount of federal programs he wants to start will not check out with the tax cuts that he proposes. For those people who do not have a specific stance against his platform I dont think his race turns them off as much as the conservative spin that is being placed on him. For example I think that the trigger words that McCain and Palin are using like “family values” and “national security” coupled with the idea that they are spreading that he is associated with a terrorist are more of a factor than solely his race.
As for the argument that many people would infact vote for a democratic, but will not becuase of subconcious prejudices againts his race…I think it is important to note that most people who would normally vote democrat are liberal on social issues. Liberals, for the most part, are in favor of homosexual rights and believe in the fundamentals of the equal rights amendment – in short they are liberal on social issues. For these reasons I find it hard to believe that traditioanl democratic voters who are liberal social issues will not vote for Obama becuase of his race.
Finally as a much early blogger posted Bradley Effect or not , “… the polls may be slightly inaccurate.” Especially on the national level it is hard to get accurate polls. I do think that the race will be closer than polls are suggesting, and yes partly because of the Bradley Effect, but also becuase of regular margin of error and other current events such as the economy that may sway independents more to the right, depending on which economic theory they perscribe too.
I agree with what america4life said. It is very hard to tell the extent of the Bradley Effect and I think that in the end it all comes down to each individual voter in the booth with the curtain closed. Many people will say that they support Obama as a way to not appear racist or because they support his ideas and politics, however, it all comes down to the couple of minutes in the booth when they vote. No one who you vote for.
I believe that the Bradley Effect will have an impact on the election but will not be a game changer. Unfortunately, while it is not as socially acceptable as it used to be, racism still exists in America today. Though publicly a person may be reluctant to denounce a black candidate, once they are in a voting booth no one is there to watch them make their decision. I don’t think that racism is rampant enough though for the Bradley effect to change the outcome of the election.
In my opinion, “Bradley Effect” may have some small effect, but will not change the outcome of the election. While it is rather impossible to know exactly how people will vote in the private booth, I think the race between Obama and Clinton in the primary is a logical indication of the how Obama will do in November. Many viewed Hillary Clinton as the favorite leading up to the primaries; she was a more experienced candidate, not to mention white. However, as the fivethirtyeight.com article states, Obama exceeded expectations and outperformed the polls by 3.3 percent.
I truly think the majority of this country is ready for change and are much more open to diversity as long as they can relate and feel that this person will steer our country in the right direction. As a whole, our country thinks differently now than it used to be; universities are searching for diversity among their students and we cannot be wrapped up in superficialities like race to prevent someone from doing a fine job as president. The Time Magazine article states that people are less concerned with crime and welfare regarding race as they once were in the 1980’s and 90’s.
The fivethirtyeight.com article makes another valid point when they state that the Bradley Effect is not an argument about whether people will vote based on race; it is about whether people will lie to the pollsters. If people are honest with the way they poll, than the results should not seem surprising. The polls currently favor Obama, but it will still be a very close race to the end.
In my opinion I think that Bradley effect will play a small role in the outcome of the election. Although it saddens me to say this it iwll definately effect the polls. Race is such a large issue in our country and although the fivethirtyeight.com article talks about whether people will lie to pollsters this means people aren’t being honest with themselves. With these people not being honest to themselves they can support Obama until they enter the election room, when they get in front of that ballot are they actually goign to check off Obama? It will be interesting to see in the upcomign days whether the Bradley effect does play a role
I think that the Bradley Effect will be an issue but not for a large amount of voters and it will not be significant enough to affect the election outcome. In the article it says that people do not want to admit that they are racist and so they do not say that they would not vote for Obama because he is African American but I believe that if that had been a real issue the primary would have turned out much differently because people would have voted for Clinton. In reality, during the primaries Obama actually exceeded his orginal poll numbers so I really doubt that it will have any large affect.
Well i find the Bradley effect very interesting, it touches a very sensitive subject among all Americans and usually is not talked about in the mass media. On the note i believe the Bradely effect will play a small role in the outcome of the election. Even though most people are not willing to call themselves “racist”, i feel that the percentage of people in the America who are actually “racist” is so small that it will have enough effect on the outcome of the election to possibly prove the current polls wrong.
Even though i believe the bradley effect wont effect the election that much it will still be interesting to see how many people who said they were going to vote for Obama, actually change their vote to McCain.
I think that the Bradley Effect is going to have a huge impact on the upcoming election. I do think that unfortunately some Americans will find it hard to vote for a black president. That is not to say that Obama is not a great guy, but you know there still is racism and so people will find it hard on Nov. 4 to vote for a black president.
It is my personal belief that the Bradley Effect is very real and very possible, even in this presidential election. I think it is safe to say, however, that every person on this planet has lied at least once in his or her life and it will definitely be no different when it comes time to vote. Just recently, the whole ACORN fraud adds more testaments to some of the more corrupt methods taking place during the presidential election. History has repeated itself and history will always continue to repeat itself, because humans are generally greedy. As a general example: humanity as a whole has not seen a time period without a conflict or war occurring. We have also seen the perspectives that opponents of Obama possess – ranging from allegations that he is an Arab or Muslim to having an otherwise intimate relationship with a domestic terrorist group to wanting to teach sex education to kindergartners. People disregard them at the moment and ridicule at such accusations, but the thoughts remain at the back of their mind. This theory, in my opinion, will be especially prominent due to the fact that most people do not know each candidate on an extremely (and more) personal level. It is easy to make judgments on people based off the external appearances, but once people get to learn more about them, perspectives change. Unfortunately, racism is one of America’s most well-known taboos and scars from the Civil Rights Movement are still fresh. These types of issues are extremely touchy and many people tend to shy away from these topics. Because of these circumstances, I believe it will also be impossible to measure the extent to which the Bradley Effect will push the results. It will also be interesting to observe how the media will handle such an issue, if it decides to fully embrace the topic. By no means, however, am I a pessimist – I am merely expressing my thoughts and opinions based upon what I have observed thus far.
I go back and forth between whether I think the Bradley Effect will come into play this election. I do believe that there are racist people living in the US who wouldn’t vote for a black man as president. But I think that the poeple who would decide their vote that way don’t really care if they sound racist or not and would simply say that they are voting for McCain.
While the results from the New Hampshire campagin were surprising I don’t think that they will have a continual effect, or at least a big enough effect to really change this election. There might be a percentage of the population who will say their voting for Obama just so they don’t seem racist, but that percentage is probably just a fraction.
I don’t think that the “Bradley effect” will be a game changer, but that it will have a small to medium effect on the results of the election. The outcome, I believe, will be the same. I think that Americans have come far enough to cast their votes based on the candidates’ qualifications not race. However, there may be a small group of Americans that will vote according to the candidate’s ethnicity. Even though Obama is ahead in the polls, I do not believe they are that accurate. Obama will probably still win the elections, but I think it will be a closer race than many people expect. I hope the “Bradley effect” is not applicable to today’s society and that votes are casted fairly.
The “Bradley effect” is a theory that holds that voters have a tendency to withhold their decisions from pollsters when they plan to vote for a white candidate instead of a black one. I believe that racial bias is definitely a factor in the presidential race. While the “Bradley effect” may exist, it will be impossible to measure. The polls are already subject to much error, and trying to measure this type of bias is impossible. Voters may fear change and therefore have reservation in their decision to vote for someone who is not of the white race. Americans need to overcome this racial bias and realize that the candidate’s stance on the major issues is what really matters.
I do think the Bradley effect will impact the election, but how much is impossible to tell. The main way information about elections is taken is by exit polls. How can one ask a question relating to the Bradley effect in an exit poll. Did you tell people you were voting for Obama, but then not because he is black? Are you racist, but ashamed to admit it so you were a closet McCain supporter? I do think there are people who would not accept a black president, but would be too ashamed to admit it. This potential group likely makes up at least a part of undecided voters. This group will impact the election, but in a manner that will never be able to be measured.
I think the Bradley Effect will effect the election and I am worried that Obama’s lead is not as strong as it seems to be. After listening to an NPR story on polling and campaigning in Pennsylvania, I realized that there are more racists than I thought, even right next door. In the story, some Pennsylvanians polled were upfront about their feelings toward black people, stating point blank that they do not trust Obama because he is black. For others, it took long conversations on the phone with campaigners before they even realized that, deep down, they feel unsettled by Obama’s race. However, I am sure that many people were less open about their prejudices. If a poll were done face to face with a black pollster, the interviewee would most likely not admit to their racism or prejudices. Now that our culture is strongly opposed to racism, it is also unlikely that someone who is racist will admit that to a stranger over the phone. However, I would like to believe that for this election especially, people are looking at the issues, not just the person.
One more thing… I would like to respond to maggietodd’s comment that liberal voters are less likely to be swayed by race because they are liberal on social issues. Although there are less left-leaning Christian workers than there used to be, there are still liberals that take a conservative stance on liberal issues and could hold on to racial prejudices against Obama. Again, to refer to the This American Life episode for this week, many more union workers (traditionally liberal) than you would think cannot get themselves to vote for a black candidate. I think it is unfair to imply that the only racists in the country are conservatives.
i belive in the bradley affect, and i feel lthat it is impossible to not beilieve in it when there is historical evidence proving that it can happen.
In response to the question posed on whether it will be a game changer is very hard to determine. Although i would like to think that america is passed this time period where an election can be so drastically changed by people feeling the need to not be a “racist” there are still these types of worries throughout the united states. You cannot forget the diversity that is present in the united states (not only dealing with race but with political veiws) I’m sure that if you were to go to the mid-west you would be hearing a lot less about the bradley affect and a lot more about how obama is not fit to be president.
this face is impossible to measure and will not be known until november 5th, but for our nations sake i hope that there is not a huge magical ’sway” in votes at the very end because this will only cause more conflict and more disscussion about the issue of race.
I think that the “Bradley effect” is ultimately a theory in which it’s unable to be measured now, tomorrow, or twenty years from now.
To begin with, the human mind can often be a teeter tottering thing. Is it the apple or the banana to eat after school? I’m not implying that a presidential election should be taken so lightly, but people can easily be influenced to make decisions. One person may tell you he or she is voting for Senator McCain or Senator Obama, when perhaps the next day one of the candidates may say something that the individual would dislike or favor.
Secondly polls have been extremely prone to error, human error or technological error throughout America’s history. So that could easily sway the outcome.
Also, as being a native of the Midwest, I do realize the generalization that it would be uncomfortable to see Senator Obama as president. To put my two cents to that I say ultimately it does not matter what someones appearance may be, but as a human it matters only that solutions to issues be made.
A persons thought is their own, and to claim a “Bradley Effect” is completely bias because no one, no one, will ever know exactly what a whole nation and it’s people are thinking.
I think it is nieve to say that the Bradley Effect won’t be a factor AT ALL in the current election. However, I don’t think it will be prevalent enough to change the outcome of the election. Obama is too far ahead for an issue like race to be the change the course of the election. I also don’t think it is possible to measure who voted for McCain after telling a pollster they were voting for Obama because they changed their mind and who voted for McCain due to a Bradley Effect type scenario.
I think that the Bradley effect will come in a play but won’t have a major effect on the election. The effect won’t be a game changer but it definitively have some effect. There are some racist people living in America but not to many. McCain right now is depending on the Bradley effect to win but i don’t think it is going to happen. The presidential election is very interesting, I think the race is going to come very close but at the end Obama is going to take the lead.
I think that the Bradley effect has been on Americans minds for months now. Many are wondering if McCain will in fact win, because no matter what people say, when they are behind that curtain, nobody else will know. However I am not sure how this effect will change the outcome if it does at all. Even with the margin of error it still appears that Obama is in the lead, nevertheless this article has showed countless examples of instances where it has proven to be correct before. With the election just 2 days away, only time will be able to tell how each person will vote. There are many people only supporting Obama because of his race. And there are many people voting Obama because they are too afraid of Sarah Palin being their next president. By tuesday night, we will be able to see if the Bradley Effect really changed the predicted outcome as it has in the past. But until then, i dont think that it can be counted as an accurate possibility since this election is so important and controversial.
At this point I don’t think that the Bradley Effect will follow through. People are truly into this election because the impact of the outcome. There are some many things involved in this election and if people waste time by lying in their pre primary votes then the country will be the only ones to blame from the outcome.
Although the Bradley Effect may have a small effect, I would hope that it will not change the outcome. It would be easy to measure if it does happen to follow through, but in a time like we’re in right now, it would be pointless to have done so. Agreeing with the previous post I believe that McCain hopes the election will turn around in his favor by knowing about this effect, but Obama will still hopefully come out a clear winner. Some votes may turn, but overall, the Bradley Effect will have little if no “effect”.
This election is interesting in that a black man is running for president on one ticket while a woman is running for vice president on the opposing ticket. In addition, the economic crisis on Wall Street, the feeble state of our health care system, and the War in Iraq have people questioning their traditional party affiliations and political viewpoints. For these reasons, I don’t believe the Bradley Effect will play a role in this year’s election. First of all, McCain will face the same issue on November fourth. As voters go and cast their vote, the same people who are apprehensive about electing an African American to office would probably be just as hesitant about having a woman as vice president and potentially president. Essentially, the Bradley effect will have no impact because the same individuals who would shy away from voting for Obama because of his race will shy away from McCain because of his female running mate. Because of this, I don’t feel that race/gender will play as much of a role in deciding who people vote for this year. I believe that (aside from concrete issues) people will be looking at the candidates’ age and level of experience instead. Also, I feel that since government and non-government institutions are in such a state of disarray, that race will not even be a consideration for many voters this year. Additionally, the Bradley effect did not impact Obama during the primaries, so I feel that it’s a stretch to say it will during the general election.
I think that it would be slightly idealistic to think that the Bradley effect is not going to come into play. Just looking at the past history of the elections, as mentioned in the Time article, I don’t think we can completely discount it. I can only hope that the American people can rise above racism, and vote for the person they think will best run our country. I think that Obama has a big enough lead that its not going to be a game changer. I also think that more young people and minorities may come out to vote this year which may offset any inaccuracy of the polls due to the Bradley effect. Anyway, right now I can only speculate, and wait until Teusday, when we will finally see if the Bradley effect will come into play.
i believe that the Bradley effect will likely alter the outcome of the election. How much it will effect the election is impossible to tell though. There will always be people out there who are racist. Numerous McCain supporters don’t support Obama but they really don’t have any reasons why they don’t support him except for the fact that he is black. Hopefully, for this election, the amount of votes that will be lost to Obama due to the Bradley effect will be minimal. Obama’s lead has diminished over the past week, but he still does lead the polls. It will be hard to measure the magnitude of the Bradley effect, but i feel that the independents who have yet to choose sides, will not be swayed very much by Obama’s race.
Honestly, the people who are racist enough to not vote for Obama because he’s black are not going to lie to pollsters. These people are probably proud to be racist, so there’s really no reason to believe that the polls are inaccurate simply because they’re lying to pollsters. I do, however, believe that the people who are racist will turn out in larger numbers on election day than most people think. There’s really no way to gauge the total amount of people who are racist in America, so I’m sure that most of these people haven’t been polled and when they vote in large numbers I’m sure there will be a surprising popular vote.
I’m not saying that Obama is going to lose the election just because he’s black. In fact, he’ll probably win for a myriad of reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with race. We’ve come a long way since Bradley lost in 1982, but sadly there’s still a lot of racism present throughout America. Many American’s are probably sub-consciously racist. They won’t vote for Obama and they won’t even realize it until they step in the voting booth. On that same thought, I’m sure there are people who won’t vote for McCain because his running mate, Sarah Palin, is a woman.
I personally don’t like that the election is turning into such an issue of race, but I think that it’s inevitable. I really hope that if Obama loses it won’t be blamed on his race, because quite simply, not enough of America is racist to affect the overall outcome of the election. I like to think that the better man will win the election, not the white man or the black man.
I think that the Bradley Effect might actually change the outcome of this election because no one wants to tell a pollster that they are race and that they would never vote for an African American President. This country has and will always be touchy about race; therefore, when one is asked about what the truly think of a minority they might not answer truthfully for fear that they will be seen as a racist. Another reason that this new theory may affect the upcoming election is that this election is historic and many people are not ready for a change. If Obama does not win I hope that people do not blame it on his race and if he loses than I hope they do not say that he won solely because he is African American. Americans will never be able to freely talk about race and racism because it is still to touchy of a subject therefore this makes these polls a little inaccurate because no one wants to be politically incorrect.
I believe that the Bradley Effect will be present in this election but not enough to change the outcome. I also believe that it will be impossible to measure. It’s true that there are still people in the United States who are racist and people who are afraid of being called racist. For this reason it is possible that they would say they are voting for Obama but when election day comes around they really vote for McCain. But this is impossible to measure because no one would know the reason for Obamas lack of votes. It could have been due to the Bradley Effect, but it also could have been because many Obama supporters decided not to vote. It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.
I feel that the Bradley effect deffinetly will have an effect, because some people feel that if they are not voting for obama, they’re racist. If they do support McCain, they may not be willing to tell people that they support him, because other people may see them as racist. If they do not support McCain, they may not support Obama either, but will say one thing and vote the other. No one knows who you are voting for, so the polls are at the mercy of the people. I don’t think it will have a major effect, but it definetly will effect some counties in random southern states, which then could effect what way the state goes, but its still unlikely to have a major effect.
I honestly don’t think that the “Bradley Effect” will have a major impact on this election. I believe that even since 1982, our country has made major advancements in the way we look at race. Barack Obama would not have done as well in the primaries as he did if race was a major issue.
I don’t want to make a generalization but I think that states in the South where race could be an issue are most likely going to go red anyway. I think that the polls are so strong in Obama’s favor that the small percentage of people who lied when they said they would vote for a black president will not affect the results terribly. It will simply be a margin of error.
The concept of the “Bradley Effect” existing and affecting the results of the 2008 election both frightens and saddens me. Though I think this closeted racism exists in some part of the country and will probably have a slight affect on the outcome of presidential race, I cannot believe that the change in results will be significant. I have faith in the American people that in this day in age, after an African American has finally succeeded to level Obama has in running for the most powerful public office, people will not base their vote on race. I think the American people are for the most part honest. If they said they will vote for Obama in a poll, I have faith that they will in fact vote for Obama when the curtains close in the voting booth. Due to the major national polls almost unanimous predictions of Obama’s victory on Nov. 4, if Obama were to lose by a landslide, my immediate reaction would be to credit the “Bradley Effect” for his unexpected loss.
I truly believe in the existence of a Bradley effect. As optimistic as I’d like to be about the issue, I think it could make a huge difference in the long run. Polls today are showing Obama in the lead, however, if this effect actually works, then the real election may teeter in the opposite direction.
When people are polled, it is important to remember that not everybody gets a say. Those without landlines (including the population of college students) aren’t involved with the polling, and people don’t always answer their phones. Also factors such as dishonesty and apathy weigh heavily in on the situation.
Therefore, the democrats shouldn’t pop the champagne just yet. They need to be resilient and push to the end to make sure this racist phenomenon doesn’t occur. Of course it is virtually impossible to measure, but by contrasting the polls with the actual results of the presidential election. Though we may not be able to pinpoint who exactly was a victim of the Bradley effect, it will be evident if large upwards of people who claimed they’d vote Barack suddenly change their mind before elections and wind up switching sides.
As for those who do end up supporting the other camp after faking otherwise for sheer esteem, it is shameful that such a blanketed racism does exist. If the race factor came down to the last thing to consider, then that voter needs to seriously live in the twenty-first century. Sorry to sound harsh, but you’d think by now racism wouldn’t even be around
After all, what does skin color have to do with anything?
Hopefully the citizens will vote for whichever candidate believe will do the best job, regardless of petty factors such as the pigmentation of skin.
I believe that the bradly effect will not have a great impact on this election. I feel that now more than ever the public’s concerns are on our economy and other social issues. I don’t believe that Obama’s race is a disadvantage, instead I feel it’s an advantage because people want to see a fresh face. The people want change and Obama is change in everyway. I feel that the red states will vote republican and the blue states will vote democratic. I don’t think people’s votes will be toward McCain just because Obama’s African American. I think the swing states will show how badly the people want change and who they think can carry our country out of our economic mess.
I agree with recount08 post #1 in that people are going to side with the candidate with the best policies because of shaky times. The economy has been in the gutter, which has prompted for an increased anxiety that has Americans think the sky is falling. During these turbulent and tumultuous times, voters will be most likely to abandon superficial ideas and opt for a candidate with policies that can really bolster the economy and help fix the financial situation.
Moreover, the bradley effect has been most widely witnessed in the state and local levels; in gubernatorial, city, and senate races. And according to FiveThirtyEight, the bradley effect does not exist any longer since the 1990s. In addition, during the primaries, Barack Obama actually overperformed than what was predicted by polls, not underperformed as predicted by the Bradley effect.
All in all, because we are during shaky times, voters will vote more based on policies that are beneficial. Moreover, the bradley effect has been claimed to not exist anymore, and Barack Obama has not shown any signs of underperformance as shown in the primaries. Therefore, I believe the bradley effect will have little to no effect in the outcome.
I believe that our country is percieved to be in such bad shape that the Bradley effect will not com into play. Contrary, I believe that people will actually vote for Obama because he is so different than the typical candidate. The economic crisis, controversy surrounding social security, and the War On Terrot have people questioning their traditional ideology. The Bradley effect will not come into play this year.
John McCain will face a similar issue this year: ageism runs rampant throughout our political system (McCain is 72). McCain is also fielding a minority vice presedintial candidate. Individuals are likely to be just as hesitant to vote for a woman as they are to vote for a racial minority. The Bradley effect will play no role because the same individuals who would not vote for Obama because of his race will not vote for McCain because of the gender of his running mate.
I think that our country hsa grown up, and that gender and race issues will not factor into the equation. I believe that due to the volatile situation of our government and economy, these two factors will be overlooked. Also, the Bradley effect did not hold true during the primaries: Obama out performed his projected totals. The Bradley effect is dead.
I think the “Bradley Effect” will be difficult to measure prior to the election because there is no way to know for sure who people will be voting for once they are behind the curtain. I do not think it will change the outcome of the election, but I do feel that it will slightly affect it and create a closer race than some might think. I think that many people have jumped on the Obama band wagon just so they are not ridiculed by anyone as being potentially racist, but when they go to vote on November 4th, they will press the McCain button. I believe this will prevent the election from being the landslide that some people are predicting.
My opinion is very similar to that of drraoulduke because I believe that the Bradley Effect ceases to be an issue and a problem for the Obama campaign when people are so preoccupied with other issues such as the economy. If people are homeless and jobless, the race of their president is probably considerable insignificant. Obama has been forced to work even harder to combat the perceived problem of racism. He has had to be that much more eloquent and that much more calm simply to keep his candidacy alive.
The same sort of problem is possibly faced by the McCain campaign, the issue of sexism was not overcome when 18 million people voted for Hillary Clinton. Although I think that sexism is much less likely to impact McCain because Palin is the VP, I believe that if Clinton were running, she would have to work very hard to prove her capability.
Even though the election is over and we know that Obama did win, I believe that the Bradley effect may have come into affect in a few states. I also think that this may have actually had a backwards affect in a few states being that some people may have voted for Obama because he was an African American. There probaly was a portion of Americans who have no idea what Obama’s policies were but they wanted to make history.
I think in the end that the right candidate for this time did win because there were issues that needed to be fixed and McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time and that would not have helped at a time like this.
In my opinion, the “Bradley Effect” will have an insignificant effect on the outcome of the lection. While I do think there are some racial tendencies in all of us, the race between Obama and Clinton in the primary seems like a logical indicator of how Obama will hold up in the Presidential Election. Not only was Hillary the more experienced candidate, as opposed to Obama, who had been a community organizer prior to his decision to run, but she was white. I hate talking about the issue of race because I would like to believe that Americans have become more open-minded and wise, so much so that a petty issue such as race will not swing their votes.
I think Americans are growing more and more hesitant of Bush’s ability to lead the country, and that they are ready for a new President who will steer America into the correct direction. Americans would be naive and stupid if they allowed themselves to be wrapped up in such an archaic and primitive view. Times are changing, and if America is to stride forward, these ideas must be purged immediately.
Besides, with Obama leading in the polls by such a wide margin, I don’t think it’s possible for McCain to win. Sure, a small percentage of people will vote differently behind closed doors, but for Obama to lose the election when he’s ahead of McCain by 13 or 14 points is simply ridiculous. Maybe if he was ahead by only 3 measly points could McCain have a chance, but that’s not the case, now is it?
I originally thought that the “Bradley Effect” would be a fairly big factor in changing the outcome of the election mainly because at times it seemed that the Obama campaign was a huge liberal bandwagon. People don’t want people to think they’re racist and want to sound cool so they say that they’re voting for Obama but then might go and vote for McCain when no ones looking. Although now that the election is over it is safe to say that America stuck to their word and voted for the right canidate.
I also agree with Chad Ocho Cinco that there might have also been a “backwards affect” from people who may have voted for Obama solely because of his race. Either way I don’t think it’s safe to say that one single factor, such as the “Bradley Effect” was the only thing that was taken into account when votes were casted.
A lot of things went into this election besides race, just look at the age difference for example, it’s remarkable. To America Obama brings a fresh new look while McCain is very old who lived and suffered through Vietnamn, which only older people can relate to nowadays. That is only one other example that could have taken place with the uninformed Americans who voted. With lots of factors in this election it is impossible to measure what exactly went into the cause of the outcome other than Obama is what the people of America want for their country.
I feel the “Bradley Effect” will have no effect at all on this election. I think that there is no reason for pollers to lie about who they are voting for just on race and that in fact those people would be honest about it. It has even been said that Obama will get a larger amount when dealing with race because black is more “trendy” now and should provide a better voting base. I do not think this is going to change the election. If anything it will make it even better for Obama’s case because he is almost getting a free pass past all negative broadcasting. I think because of his race and composure people find it very offensive if he were to be made fun of on news and television broadcasts. The “Bradley Effect” will have no turn out whatsoever on this election.
Well now that the election is over, i think it is valuable to discuss that the Bradley effect had little to no effect on the election. Exit polls showed record numbers of even older educated white voters, who one would assume would go to Republican, were voting for Obama. This election truly showed that the economic crisis transcended race. I think the main reason race was not a major factor in this election, is because Obama’s race entered the dialog very early in the race, so after a time of Obama’s race being a topic of discussion, the issue just became stale and of little importance. Also, it is probably safe to assume that as much as people may hate each other, President Bush is overall probably more hated. Obama’s successful linking of McCain to Bush really worked, not just in terms of McCain representing as a branch of a incredibly unpopular administration, but also in that people who were worried about their jobs, their mortgages, and their financial security felt the link Obama had established from McCain to Bush, and really, event at the price of maybe sacrificing some racist values, felt that they could risk another administration similar to Bush’s, under which the economic trouble began. This is of course not saying that Bush was responsible for the trouble our economy is having, the seeds of those problems go way back, but it is easy to blame the President if something goes wrong. But in another sense, race was a very important issue in this election. Even though historically African-Americans have always voted with the Democrats, they came in record numbers, and Obama’s race was definitely the impetus for them getting out to vote. Besides that, Obama’s race was of no harm to him, because people really didn’t have time to worry about meaningless things like that in such times of crises.
Since the election is over and Obama’s victory was as overwhelming as it was, it is safe to say that the Bradley Effect had absolutely no effect on the election. However, we live in a state that goes to the Democratic candidate in presidential elections way more often than the Republican candidate. It is worth considering the fact the Bradley Effect most likely swayed some voters’ opinions, especially in more conservative states. The sad truth is that racism still exists, even though it may only live in peoples’ private and personal opinions.
However, the fact that a black President was elected the majority of the electoral votes shows the enormous progress our country has made not only since the 60s, but since its formation. It shows that the vast majority American people are now able to look past race and look at the issues the country is currently facing and truly vote for who they think could best handle issues such as the Iraq war and the economic crisis. It may be true that rascism will also exist in the minds of some individuals, but the important thing is that rascism has such a little effect on most people’s opinions. Obama’s election, for many, is the culmination of the efforts of civil rights leaders who helped formed America into what it is today. This fact makes me extremely proud to be a part of such a monumental moment in the history of our country. So the Bradley Effect on this election? There is no true way to measure it, but it is clear that the effect was minimal, if that.
Even though that election has been over for more than a week now, I would have to say that the Bradley Effect would not have an affect on the presidential race at all. While many people may think otherwise, I believe that a lot of people got over the fact that Barack Obama is black and they took the time to listen to what he actually had to say. McCain tried to push that fact that Obama had played the race card when in fact the repulican hopeful was playing race card himself in saying that Obama did not resemble any president found on dollar bills.
In my opinion, our country has grown leaps and bounds over the last couple of elections. Yes, it was a shock to see that a man who is not white running for office, but it was long enough ago for a lot of people to see that Obama really wants change and he wants equality. We have a new generation running the country now, and they have allowed themselves to open their minds to the idea of something new. If i had been asked this same question of whether or not the Bradley Effect would affect the outcome of this election, i would have given the same answer. America needed change, and it just so happens that they changed history in the process.
With most polls showing Senator Obama’s leading by a significant margin (10% and 14%), he was clearly out of the Bradley’s Effect margin of error, therefore,the “Bradley Effect” did not factor into this election. It would have been foolish to assume that some people will not lie about their preference in order to sway the election one way or the other, thank goodness this was not the case in this election. Americans chose their hopes and aspiration over fear and racial division. Americans went to polls in record number and voted for the candidate who gave us hope and promised to lead the country in a new direction. While Bradley effect was a reality at a time in our history, I hope President Elect Obama’s resounding victory can finally puts the Bradley Effect to rest. American people have spoken loud and clear and hopefully this ugly theory will be forever banished from our political dialogue. This election victory is not a democratic party’s victory but a victory for all American. We should all be proud that America has finally realized her dream of equality for all her citizens.
Now that the election is over, I am overwhelmingly pleased that Americans were able to choose Obama without taking into account his race, a factor that obviously should have no effect this day and age. Previous to the election however I was nervous about what the Bradley Effect could do to the race, perhaps making it closer than it should be, but there was no way to tell what the outcome would be. Living in a very diverse area of the country I was worried that I wasn’t seeing the true sentiments of Americans who live in places less diverse. I’m proud that Americans were able to easily overcome this invisible boundary through this election and focus on important issues and who was best suited for the position, not the color of their skin. This country has come a long way from the civil rights movement and has taken a huge step into putting those issues in the past, where they belong. I’m glad that Americans were able to take the initiative and welcome change, unafraid to break that boundary that had yet to be crossed.
The Bradley Effect did not seem to come into play in this election. If it did, its effect was so minuscule that it did not do too much.
Obama was able to avoid the Bradley Effect for a number of reasons. The major reason is that he is always comfortable and does not make people uncomfortable. He was raised in Hawaii, a very ethnically diverse state, and Indonesia, another country. He is biracial and has lived with a white family (his mother and grandparents) and a black family (his wife and children). He has studied in the Ivy League and worked as a community organizer in economically devastated Chicago neighborhoods. Having received exposure to so many different people and different types of people, it makes sense that Obama would be able to connect to African Americans, Asian Americans, Native Americans, White Americans, etc.
Also, I think that the stakes were too high for Americans to be concerned with race. The Bradley Effect shows that even if some Americans are racist, they are ashamed of that racism. Therefore, we can assume that most Americans recognize that racism is wrong. Perhaps in other elections Americans would have voted for the white candidate for racial reasons, but when the country is in the middle of two wars and a terrible financial crisis, Americans will vote for the best candidate (especially if they recognize how wrong racism is).
I am very proud that the nation elected its first African-American president. I have been an Obama supporter since 2004, but I never realized how meaningful his election would be until it actually happened. As he took the stage on November 4th I fully understood that an African-American would become president and I grew very emotional. Seeing Rev. Jesse Jackson crying in the crowd only made thing more emotional. I know that this is not the end of racism in the United States, but I am glad that progress is being made. And this is huge progress.
My father was a firm believer in the Bradley Effect no matter how many sources said Obama was more than likely going to win my father said over and over again “They will never vote a black man as president.” In the beginning when Hilary was still in the running he said that “America was more likely to make a white women president than a black man.” I argued and tried to show him that Obama was the stronger candidate but he still had his doubts. I was out of state when the voting took place so I missed the opportunity to say “I told you so.”
Personally I do not believe in the Bradley Effect but I feel half way between the 2 and 4 categories. I think the idea may pop into the minds of some voters and will influence some votes in some parts of the country but Obama is our President elect proving the Bradley effect didn’t have a significant influence on the election.
I believe that the Bradley effect will have a small effect on election results, but not change the outcome. The theory has its validities, as many people do have a tendency to be more racial biased behind closed doors, whereas when talking publically, tend to be more open. People like to talk about how open and unjudging they are regarding candidates, but then once in the election booths, many may “admit” their true feelings and cast a ballot different from who they may have talked about voting for. I believe that people who talk about being openminded and willing to vote for someone regarless of race, when they may not exactly feel that way, are not trying to put on a show for others as much as themselves. People like to feel like they are nonjudgemental because even if they truly do judge, it is not a positive attribute to be associated with now in today’s society. If someone is judgemental it’s labled a “bad thing” and they are looked down upon which is strong insentive for those who feel that way to sometimes try and hide it. They may even feel guilt for how they are habitually inclined to judge someone based on race or gender, and therefore are trying to convince themselves and feel like a “better person” by playing up their commitment to someone like Obama, and African American candidate. Once these people are alone in the elections booths however, they can feel free to make the decision they want without, ironically, being “judged.”
Now this being said, I still only believe a small percent of people will be doing this in the 2008 election. In past elections the Bradley effect was probably more prevelent, but in this election the people seem truly in strong support of presidential candidate Barack Obama. There may be some that are “faking it,” but the kind of praise, excitment, and sheer infatuation people seem to with him, I believe cannot purely be a hoax.
In the last post I did talking about the electoral map, I talked about the Bradley Effect. I was even so bold as to call it the Obama Effect, which I now regret, but thats not important. I said that Obama would lose the important swing states such as Ohio and Florida, which was just a tad little silly. Basically, I said that the Bradley Effect would have a huge effect on the election, and it was much closer than the polls suggested. If you want to see my pre-election thoughts about the Bradley Effect, just see my last post. Now, after the fact, I see that it only mildly affected the election results. For the most part Obama was polling 8 to 10 points ahead, and ended up winning by 7 (I believe). I believe this is a good thing because it shows that the Bradley Effect is dead, or at least nowhere near as important to consider as it once was. I do not like political correctness, and so I hate the Bradley Effect. After all, it is people lying saying they are undecided or voting for the black candidate, when they are in fact not going to.